000
AXPZ20 KNHC 112156
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Oct 11 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 93W north of 04N to across 
southeastern Mexico. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Numerous
moderate to isolated strong convection is west of the wave to 99W
from 04N to 07N, and also from 07N to 10N between the wave and
97W.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia to
southern Panama and curves northwestward to 15N93W to 16N97W to 
15N110W to 11N 120W and to 09N127W, where latest scatterometer 
data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 
09N134W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is seen within 180 nm south of the trough between
83W-88W, and within 30 nm of the ITCZ between 135W-140W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm south of the
trough between 79W-83W, also within 60 nm north of the trough 
between 99W-104W, and within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 
131W-135W.
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The cold front that moved into the far northern portion of the 
area this morning has reached a position from the northern Gulf 
of California, southwestward across central Baja California to 
26N125W and to 27N130W and northwestward to 29N139W. A tight 
gradient between building high pressure behind the front and 
relatively lower pressure in the western U.S. has resulted in 
fresh to northwest winds behind the front. A couple of ship 
observations indicated northwest winds of 20-25 kt and seas to 9 
ft west of Baja California. In the Gulf of California, gentle to 
moderate southerly winds prevail along with seas of 4-5 ft over 
the southern part of the Gulf. Slightly higher seas of 5-7 ft are
downstream of the Gulf over the waters west of Jalisco due to a 
southwest to west swell.

Recent ASCAT data passes show an area of fresh southwest to west
winds from 11N to 17N between 100W-109W. Seas with these winds 
are 8-11 ft in northwest swell. These conditions are forecast 
to diminish by early on Thu.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will sweep 
across the rest of central Baja California and the central
Gulf of California through tonight while weakening, followed by 
the fresh to strong northwest winds. Long-period northwest swell
will follow the front building seas to 9 to 12 ft north of 27N 
between 118W and 123W by Thu morning, with the highest seas near 
30N120W. In the Gulf of California, moderate to fresh south to 
southwest winds are expected through Thu. High pressure will then
settle in over the area through early next week. Fresh to strong
southwest to west winds just south and southwest of the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec will diminish by early Thu afternoon. The first Gulf 
of Tehuantepec gap wind event of this fall season is expected to 
begin on Sun afternoon, with fresh to strong north to northeast 
winds lasting well into next week as winds gradually increase. 
There is a possibility for these winds to reach gale force Mon 
and Mon night. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Mostly light and variable winds are north of about 07N, and 
gentle to moderate south winds south of 07N. Seas are generally 
4-6 ft across the region due a southerly swell. 

For the forecast, mainly light to gentle winds will continue 
north of of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate winds 
south of it. Long-period southerly swell will continue to 
propagate across the offshore forecast waters with seas of 
5-6 ft.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure covers the area north of about 15N A ridge 
dominates the forecast waters N of 15N and W of 120W. The
associated pressure gradient is allowing for generally gentle to
moderate northeast to east trade winds over these waters. Seas 
with these winds are 5-6 ft per recent altimeter data passes. 
Elsewhere, north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ light to gentle 
northeast to east winds are present with seas of 4-5 ft. Gentle 
to moderate south to southwest winds are south of the monsoon 
trough. Seas there are 5-6 ft due to southerly long-period swell,
except for slightly higher seas of 6-8 ft south of about 02S 
between 92W-120W due to long- period cross equatorial southerly 
swell. 

For the forecast, high pressure over the area will gradually 
shift eastward and weaken through Fri as a cold front that is 
currently moving across the central waters continues to push 
southward while weakening and another cold front enters the 
northwest part of the area while also weakening. A set of 
northwest swell will follow in behind this front bringing seas of
8-10 ft to far northwest waters.

$$
Aguirre