000
AXPZ20 KNHC 111624 CCA
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Oct 11 2023

Corrected Offshore Waters Within 250 nm of Mexico section

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 91W north of 04N to across
western Guatemala. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered
to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 120 nm
west of the wave from 06N to 08N, and also from 04N to 07N 
between 93W-97W.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia to
northern Costa Rica to 10N86W to 10N92W and to 13N98W. It 
resumes at 16N109W to 09N125W, where latest scatterometer data 
indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 
07N131W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is seen from 05N to 08N between 84W-90W, and within 
120 nm north of the ITCZ between 134W-138W. Scattered moderate 
convection is within 30 nm of the trough between 118W-123W, and 
within 30 nm north of the ITCZ between 131W-134W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...Corrected

Swells generated by former Hurricane Lidia will continue to 
affect the west coast of Mexico and the Baja California peninsula
today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf 
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your 
local weather office. 

Overnight ASCAT data reveals an area of fresh to strong SW to W 
winds from 13N to 17N between 102W-108W. Seas with these winds 
are 8-10 ft. 

High pressure dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja 
California north of Cabo San Lazaro producing moderate to fresh 
northwest to north winds along with seas of 6-8 ft. In the Gulf 
of California, gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail along
with seas of 5-7 ft across the southern part of the Gulf.
Slightly higher seas to 8 ft are downstream of the Gulf, south 
of about 21N.

For the forecast, a weak cold front that has recently entered the 
far northern waters extends from near southern California
southwestward to 29N130W and to northwestward to near 30N140W. 
This cold front will sweep across the rest of the northern waters
and central waters today and this evening while weakening. In 
its wake, increasing winds will follow, mainly north of Punta 
Eugenia. Long-period northwest swell will follow the front 
building seas to 11 or 12 ft north of 26N between 116W-134W by 
Thu morning, with the highest seas near 30N120W. In the Gulf of 
California, moderate to fresh south to southwest winds are 
expected through Thu, with seas of 3-5 ft. The area of fresh to 
strong southwest to west winds from 13N to 17N between 102W-108W 
will diminish by late morning or early afternoon on Thu. Fresh 
to strong southwest to west winds are expected just south and 
southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec beginning by early this 
afternoon and diminishing by early Thu afternoon.   

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Overnight ASCAT data depicts mostly light and variable winds
north of about 06N, and gentle to moderate south winds south of 
06N. Seas are generally 4-6 ft across the region due a southerly 
swell. 

For the forecast, mainly light to gentle winds will continue 
north of of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate winds 
south of it. Long-period southerly swell will continue to 
propagate across the offshore forecast waters with seas in the 4-
7 ft range. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge dominates the forecast waters N of 15N and W of 120W. 
Under the influence of the ridge, mainly gentle to moderate
northerly winds persist east of 120W due to the pressure 
gradient between the ridge and lower pressures related to the 
circulation of the remnants of Lidia. Overnight ASCAT data passes
showed an area of moderate to locally fresh northeast winds
from 14N to 21N between 125W-132W. Elsewhere over the northern 
forecast waters light to gentle winds are noted. Gentle to 
moderate south to southwest winds are south of the monsoon 
trough as indicated in overnight ASCAT data passes while light 
to gentle northeast trade winds are north of the monsoon trough.
Seas are in the range of 5-6 ft north of the monsoon trough and 
5-7 ft south of the trough, except for slightly higher seas of 
6-8 ft south of about 02S between 81W-120W due to long-period 
cross equatorial southerly swell. 

For the forecast, a ridge will prevail west of about 120W today, 
then extend eastward toward Baja California as the remnants of
Lidia continues to move inland and dissipate. A cold front will 
move across the northern forecast waters today, ushering in 
increasing winds and seas. Long-period northwest swell is 
expected in the wake of the front. The swell is forecast to
propagate across the northern waters, most specifically north of
22N between 116W-128W through the rest of the week.

$$
Aguirre