000 AXPZ20 KNHC 110317 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Oct 11 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Extremely dangerous category 4 Hurricane Lidia made landfall in west-central Mexico near Las Penitas in the state of Jalisco around 550 PM MDT (2350 UTC) with maximum winds estimated to be near 140 mph (220 km/h). At 11/0300 UTC, Hurricane Lidia is centered near 20.6N 104.7W, moving east-northeast at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 120 nm NE and 150 nm SW semicircles. Peak seas are near 28 ft, with the 12 ft sea radii extending as far as 180 nm in the SE and SW quadrants, and 150 nm in the NW quadrant. On the forecast track, the center of Lidia will continue moving inland over west-central Mexico tonight and Wednesday morning. Rapid weakening is expected as Lidia moves inland tonight and Wednesday. Lidia is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local maxima of 12 inches through Wednesday across the state of Nayarit, southern portions of the state of Sinaloa, and coastal portions of the state of Jalisco in western Mexico. These rains will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain near the coast. A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the south of where Lidia made landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Swells generated by Lidia will affect the west coast of Mexico and the Baja California peninsula for the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Hurricane Lidia NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 87W north of 04N to across Honduras. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. The wave is helping to induce some convective activity over Honduras. Scattered moderate convection is seen near the south end of the wave axis from 05N to 08N between 85W and 89W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N84W to 12N94W then resumes well to the southwest of Hurricane Lidia at 12N110W to 10N124W to 08N140W. Numerous moderate to isolated convection is seen from 05N to 09N between 81W-87W. A cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection is from 05N to 07N between 91W and 95W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...Corrected Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Lidia. Dangerous marine conditions can be expected through late tonight across the southern and southwestern Mexico offshore waters. High pressure dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro producing moderate to fresh NW to north winds with seas of 5-7 ft. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate southerly winds will become gentle to moderate southwest winds over the northern part tonight and light to gentle elsewhere. Seas of 8 to 11 ft are near the entrance to the Gulf of California. Rough to very rough seas dominate the waters from 12 to 24N between 103W and 112W. In this area seas have built to 8-12 ft, with much high seas of 12 to 28 ft from 16N to 31N between 104W and 108W. For the forecast, Lidia will move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 22.1N 102.2W Wed morning, and dissipate Wed evening. A cold front will move across the northern forecast Wed bringing an increase in winds and seas, mainly north of Punta Eugenia. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Mostly light and variable winds N of 04N, and light to gentle winds south of 04N. Seas are generally 4-6 ft across the region in southerly swell. For the forecast, little change in the weather pattern is expected during the next several days. Mainly light to gentle winds will continue north of of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate winds south of it. Southerly swell will continue to propagate across the offshore forecast waters with seas in the 4-7 ft range. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please, refer to the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Lidia. A ridge dominates the forecast waters N of 15N and W of 120W. Under the influence of the ridge, mainly gentle to moderate winds remain east of 120W due to the pressure gradient between the ridge and Hurricane Lidia. An area of fresh south to southwest winds is south of the monsoon trough to about 09N between 110W and 122W. Latest ASCAT data reveal fresh to locally strong southwest to west winds south of Lidia that reach as far south as 12N between 103W-112W along with seas of 8-10 ft. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate S to SW winds are noted south of the monsoon trough. North of the monsoon trough, light to gentle winds remain there. Outside of Hurricane Lidia, seas are generally 4-6 ft north of 20N and 5-7 ft south of 20N. For the forecast, a ridge will prevail west of about 120W through Wed, then extend eastward toward Baja California as Hurricane Lidia continues to move inland and dissipate. A cold front will move across the northern forecast waters through Wed ushering in increasing winds and seas, mainly north of Punta Eugenia. Seas to 11 ft are expected near 30N on Wed. $$ GR