000 AXPZ20 KNHC 100915 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Oct 10 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Lidia is strengthening as it approaches west-central Mexico. Hurricane force winds and flooding rains are expected to begin in west-central Mexico this afternoon. Hurricane Lidia is centered near 18.6N 109.2W at 10/0900 UTC, moving east-northeast at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Peak seas are around 28 ft, with the 12 ft seas extending within 120 nm of center, except 150 nm SE quadrant. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 120 nm NE and 45 nm SW semicircles. Scattered moderate convection is in an outer band from 15N to 18N between 110W and 114W. On the forecast track, the center of Lidia should approach the west-central coast of Mexico within the hurricane warning area this afternoon and move inland over west- central Mexico late this evening or tonight. Additional strengthening is forecast today as Lidia approaches the west-central coast of Mexico. Rapid weakening is expected after Lidia moves inland. Lidia is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local maxima of 12 inches through Wednesday across the state Nayarit, southern portions of the state of Sinaloa, and coastal portions of the state of Jalisco in western Mexico. These rains will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain near the coast. A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the south of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the warning area later this afternoon. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Swells generated by Lidia will affect the west coast of Mexico and the Baja California peninsula for the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Max has dissipated over Mexico and the last public advisory was issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Remnants of Max are centered near 19.5N 100.5W at 10/0900 UTC, moving north-northeast at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Swells generated by Max will affect the southern coast of Mexico today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Hurricane Lidia NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 83W/84W N of 05n moving W at 10 to 15 kt. The wave extends northward into the NW Caribbean. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is near the southern end of the wave axis from 07N to 09N between 81W and 84W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N84W to 12N96W, then resumes SW of Hurricane Lidia near 12N120W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 09N between 81W and 84W, and N of 11N between 86W and 90W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 10N between 88W and 97W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please, refer to the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Lidia. Dangerous marine conditions can be expected through mid week across the southern and southwestern Mexico offshore waters. High pressure dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California N of Cabo San Lazaro producing moderate to fresh NW to N winds with seas of 5-7 ft. Winds and seas will further increase tonight into Wed as a cold front moves across this area. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate southerly winds will prevail today, except in the southern part of the Gulf where marine conditions will deteriorate as Lidia approaches the coast of Mexico between Cabo Corrientes and Las Marias Islands. Seas of 8-10 ft are expected near the entrance to the Gulf of California by this evening. For the forecast, Lidia will move to 19.5N 107.2W this afternoon, move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 21.1N 104.4W Wed morning, and dissipate Wed afternoon. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The most recent scatterometer pass indicates mainly light and variable winds N of 04N, and light to gentle winds S of 04N. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft across the region in southerly swell. For the forecast, little change in the weather pattern is expected over the next several days. Mainly light to gentle winds will persist N of the monsoon trough with gentle to moderate winds S of it. Southerly swell will continue to propagate across the offshore forecast waters with seas in the 4 to 7 ft range. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please, refer to the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Lidia. A ridge dominates the forecast waters N of 15N and W of 120W. Under the influence of the ridge, mainly gentle to moderate winds prevail especially E of 125W due to the pressure gradient between the ridge and Hurricane Lidia. A band of fresh SW winds is seen S of the monsoon trough to about 09N between 110W and 122W. Recent scatterometer pass indicates that fresh to locally strong SW to W winds prevail south of Lidia, extending as far south as 11N. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate S to SW winds are noted south of the monsoon trough. North of the monsoon trough, light to gentle winds prevail. Outside of the tropical cyclone, seas are generally 4 to 6 ft N of 20N and 5 to 7 ft S of 20N. Seas of 6 to 7 are noted over the NW corner of the forecast area in the wake of a dissipating cold front. For the forecast, a ridge will prevail W of 120W through mid- week, then extend eastward toward Baja California as Hurricane Lidia makes landfall in west-central Mexico this evening or tonight. A cold front will move across the northern forecast waters today through Wed bringing an increase in winds and seas, mainly N of Punta Eugenia. Another cold front will reach 30N on Wed. $$ GR