226 AXPZ20 KNHC 082148 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Oct 8 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Lidia is centered near 17.6N 112.8W at 08/2100 UTC, moving north at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Peak seas are around 25 ft with the 12 ft seas extending 150 nm in the NE and SW quadrants, 90 nm NW quadrant, and 210 nm SE quadrant. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 11N to 21N between 110W and 117W. A faster northeastward or east-northeastward motion is expected on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Lidia should approach the Islas Marias and the coast of west-central Mexico on Tuesday. Swells generated by Lidia will affect the west coast of Mexico and the Baja California peninsula for the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for details. PTC Sixteen-E has been upgraded to a tropical depression, centered near 15.9N 101.7W at 08/2100 UTC, moving north- northwest at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are around 11 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted N of 11N between 96W and 107W. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is forecast to reach the coast of southern Mexico within the warning area by late Monday. Tropical Depression Sixteen-E is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local maxima of 12 inches through Tuesday across the states of Guerrero, Michoacan and the coastal sections of western Oaxaca in southwest Mexico. These rains will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain near the coast. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Lidia and T.D. Sixteen-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 16N104W. The monsoon trough resumes W of Lidia near 12N120W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 05N to 11N and E of 96W, and from 07N to 14N and W of 124W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the section above for details on Tropical Storm Lidia and the now T.D. Sixteen-E. Strong to tropical storm force winds are impacting the outer portions of the Baja California Sur and SW Mexico offshore waters due to Lidia. Rough to very seas extend along and S of 21N and W of 108W. Across the rest of the Baja California offshore waters, surface ridging extending over the region is bringing gentle to moderate winds. Seas range 5 to 7 ft within mixed swell. In the Gulf of California, light to gentle winds prevail. Seas are to 4 ft throughout most of the Gulf with seas around 5 ft near the entrance. In southern Mexico, fresh N to NE winds prevail in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with seas to 7 ft. Across the rest of southern and southwestern Mexico, gentle to moderate winds prevail with seas ranging 5 to 7 ft in mixed swell. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Lidia will strengthen to a hurricane near 18.3N 112.4W Mon morning, move to 18.9N 111.6W Mon afternoon, 19.7N 109.8W Tue morning, 20.9N 107.4W Tue afternoon, move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 22.6N 104.7W Wed morning, and weaken to a remnant low near 24.5N 102.0W Wed afternoon. Lidia will dissipate Thu afternoon. T.D. Sixteen-E will strengthen to a tropical storm near 16.5N 101.8W Mon morning, move to 17.2N 101.7W Mon afternoon, move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 18.0N 101.4W Tue morning, and dissipate Tue afternoon. Dangerous marine conditions can be expected through mid week across the southern and southwestern Mexico offshore waters. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... With the monsoon trough lifted north near Nicaragua, gentle to moderate W to SW winds prevail across the Guatemala to Nicaragua offshore waters. Meanwhile, light to gentle winds prevail across the rest of the Central American offshore waters. Seas range 5 to 6 ft within S to SW swell. Gentle to moderate S winds prevail in the South American offshore waters. Seas range 4 to 6 ft in these waters within S swell. For the forecast, the long-period S to SW swell will slowly subside across the Central American offshore waters this evening. Otherwise, the light to gentle winds will persist across the area through Mon. Expect moderate winds across the South American offshore waters on Tue through midweek. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the section above for details on Tropical Storm Lidia. Latest scatterometer data continues to depict moderate to fresh winds continuing around the 1010 mb low pressure area near 11N127W. Altimeter data confirmed seas around to 8 ft in this area. Moderate to fresh winds prevail south of Lidia, extending as far south as 08N. Otherwise, gentle to moderate south to SW winds are noted south of the monsoon trough with 5 to 7 ft seas. Farther south, southerly swell bringing 8 ft seas are noted S of the equator. North of the monsoon trough, light to gentle winds prevail under the influence of high pressure extending across most of the area. Seas range 5 to 7 ft. For the forecast, weak surface ridging will prevail W of 120W through Tue. The 8 ft seas and fresh winds around 125W will diminish by Mon night. The southerly swell in the southern forecast waters will subside today. A cold front will move across the northern waters Tue into Wed, bringing moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas. $$ ERA