000 AXPZ20 KNHC 081622 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Oct 8 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Lidia is centered near 16.9N 112.8W at 08/1500 UTC, moving north-northwest at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Peak seas are around 25 ft with the 12 ft seas extending 150 nm in the NE and SW quadrants, 90 nm NW quadrant, and 210 nm SE quadrant. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 13N to 19N between 110W and 115W. On the forecast track, the center of Lidia should approach the Islas Marias and the coast of west-central Mexico on Tuesday. Little change in strength is expected today, but some strengthening is forecast on Monday and Tuesday, and Lidia is forecast to be a hurricane when it reaches Mexico. Swells generated by Lidia will affect the west coast of Mexico and the Baja California peninsula for the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for details. Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen-E is centered near 15.0N 101.1W at 08/1500 UTC, moving northwest at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are around 10 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 12N to 18N between 98W and 107W. On the forecast track, the center of the disturbance is forecast to reach the coast of southern Mexico within the warning area by late Monday. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and this system is forecast to become a tropical storm by this evening. The system is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local maxima of 12 inches through Tuesday across the states of Guerrero, Michoacan and the coastal sections of western Oaxaca in southwest Mexico. These rains will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain near the coast. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Lidia and PTC Sixteen-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 16N103W. The monsoon trough resumes W of Lidia near 12N120W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 08N to 19N between 86W and 105W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 13N and E of 96W and from 07N to 14N and W of 121W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the section above for details on Tropical Storm Lidia and Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen-E. Strong to tropical storm force winds are impacting the outer portions of the Baja California Sur and SW Mexico offshore waters due to Lidia. Rough to very seas extend along and S of 20N and W of 106W. Across the rest of the Baja California offshore waters, ridging extending over the region is bringing gentle to moderate winds. Seas range 5 to 7 ft within mixed swell. In the Gulf of California, the latest scatterometer data showed light to gentle winds. Seas are to 4 ft throughout most of the Gulf with seas around 5 ft near the entrance. Scattered thunderstorms are noted in Nayarit and Jalisco in addition to the entrance of the Gulf of California. In southern Mexico, fresh to strong N to NE winds prevail in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen-E is also producing fresh to strong winds. As a result, seas range 8 to 9 ft in this area. Across the rest of southern and southwestern Mexico, gentle to moderate winds prevail with seas ranging 5 to 7 ft in mixed swell. Strong thunderstorms continue to impact the Gulf of Tehuantepec westward to Michoacan. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Lidia will move to 17.6N 112.7W this evening, 18.3N 112.2W Mon morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 19.0N 110.8W Mon evening, 19.9N 108.5W Tue morning, 21.3N 106.1W Tue evening, and move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 23.0N 103.2W Wed morning. Lidia will dissipate early Thu. Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen-E will move to 15.5N 101.2W this evening, 16.2N 101.3W Mon morning, 17.1N 101.4W Mon evening, inland to 18.0N 101.1W Tue morning, and dissipate Tue evening. Dangerous marine conditions can be expected through early next week across the southern and southwestern Mexico offshore waters. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... With the monsoon trough lifted north near Nicaragua, gentle to moderate W to SW winds prevail across the Guatemala to Nicaragua offshore waters. Meanwhile, light to gentle winds prevail across the rest of the Central American offshore waters. Seas range 5 to 7 ft within S to SW swell. Gentle to moderate S winds prevail in the South American offshore waters. Seas range 4 to 6 ft in these waters within S swell. Strong thunderstorms continue to impact most of the Colombia offshore waters and the Gulf of Panama. Strong thunderstorms are also noted across most of the Guatemala, El Salvador, and Nicaragua offshore waters around the monsoon trough. For the forecast, the long-period S to SW swell will slowly subside across the Central American offshore waters today. Otherwise, the light to gentle winds will persist across the area through Mon. Expect moderate winds across the South American offshore waters on Tue through midweek. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the section above for details on Tropical Storm Lidia. Latest scatterometer depicts moderate to fresh winds continuing around the 1010 mb low pressure area near 11N127W. Altimeter data confirmed seas around 8 to 9 ft in this area. Moderate to fresh winds were also depicted by scatterometer south of Lidia, extending as far south as 07N. Otherwise, gentle to moderate south to SW winds are noted south of the monsoon trough with 5 to 7 ft seas. Farther south, southerly swell bringing 8 ft seas are noted S of the equator. North of the monsoon trough, light to gentle winds prevail under the influence of high pressure extending across most of the area. Seas range 5 to 7 ft. For the forecast, weak surface ridging will prevail W of 120W through Tue. The 8 ft seas and fresh winds around 125W will diminish by Mon night. The southerly swell in the southern forecast waters will subside today. A cold front will move across the northern waters Tue into Wed, bringing moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas. $$ ERA