000 AXPZ20 KNHC 080350 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Oct 8 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Lidia is centered near 16.1N 112.6W at 08/0300 UTC, moving west-northwest at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Peak seas are near 22 ft with the 12 ft seas extending 150 nm in the southern semicircle and 120 nm in the northern semicircle. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 13N to 18N between 110W and 114W. Lidia will gradually turn toward the north on Sunday, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Lidia should approach the Islas Marias and the coast of west-central Mexico early next week. Some gradual strengthening is expected through early next week, and Lidia is forecast to become a hurricane by early Monday. Swells generated by Lidia will affect the west coast of Mexico and the Baja California peninsula for the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. High to very high seas are expected across the SW Mexico offshore waters through early next week as Lidia approaches the coast. Newly named Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen-E is centered near 13.9N 100.1W at 08/0300 UTC, moving northwest at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Seas are around 8 ft north of the low pressure center. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 11N to 17N between 97W and 104W. The system will continue moving northwest. A slower northwestward to north-northwestward motion is forecast to begin on Sunday and continue through late Monday. On the forecast track, the center of the disturbance is forecast to approach the coast of southern Mexico within the watch area on Monday. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and the disturbance is forecast to become a tropical depression early Sunday, and a tropical storm late Sunday or Sunday night. This system has a high chance of developing in 48 hours. The system is expected to produce heavy rainfall that will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain near the coast. Rough to very rough seas are expected off the coasts of Oaxaca, Michoacan and Guerrero. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Lidia NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Honduras near 13N88W to 16N103W. The monsoon trough resumes W of Lidia near 12N115W to a low pressure system near 11N126W 1010 mb to 10N140W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 09N to 18N between 88W and 105W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 12N between 115W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the section above for details on Tropical Storm Lidia and Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen-E. Strong winds associated with Lidia continue to be about 300 nm W of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico. Very rough to high seas are noted in the outer portions of the SW Mexico offshore waters due to Lidia also. Farther north, a weak ridge continues to extend across the region north of 20N. Gentle to locally moderate N winds are noted N of 20N off the Baja California coast. Seas range 4 to 7 ft in mixed swell. Light to gentle winds persist across most of the the Gulf of California with moderate to locally fresh winds occurring in the southern Gulf. Seas are to 4 ft throughout most of the Gulf with seas around 5 ft near the entrance. In the southern Mexico offshore waters, fresh to strong winds are noted near Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen-E with seas around 8 ft. Otherwise, fresh to strong winds are occurring in the Gulf of Tehuantepec near Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen-E. Moderate winds are noted elsewhere in this area. Seas range 5 to 7 ft within mostly S swell. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Lidia will move to 16.8N 112.7W Sun morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 17.6N 112.6W Sun evening, 18.3N 111.9W Mon morning, 18.9N 110.5W Mon evening, 19.8N 108.5W Tue morning, and 21.1N 105.9W Tue evening. Lidia will weaken to a tropical depression while moving inland near 24.0N 101.5W by late Wed. Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen-E will move to 14.7N 100.7W Sun morning, 15.6N 101.2W Sun evening, 16.4N 101.4W Mon morning, 17.3N 101.4W Mon evening, inland to 18.5N 101.2W Tue morning, and dissipate Tue evening. Dangerous marine conditions can be expected through early next week across the southern and southwestern Mexico offshore waters. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle WSW winds are noted across the Central American offshore waters with 5 to 7 ft seas in S to SW swell. In the South American offshore waters, gentle to moderate S winds prevail. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in this area within mostly S swell. Very strong thunderstorms are moving off the Colombia coast and into the Gulf of Panama. Scattered thunderstorms are noted off the coast of Costa Rica and Nicaragua. For the forecast, long-period S to SW swell will slowly subside across the Central American offshore waters on Sun. Otherwise, the light to gentle winds will persist across the area through early next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the section above for details on Tropical Storm Lidia. Moderate to fresh winds continue around the low pressure near 11N126W with seas around 8 ft. West of this area, a trough around 140W is producing moderate to locally fresh winds with seas around 8 ft. Moderate to fresh SW winds are noted south of Lidia to 10N. Otherwise, moderate SW winds are occurring south of the monsoon trough. North of the monsoon trough, light to gentle winds prevail under the influence of the ridge with seas 5 to 7 ft. Southerly swell is bringing seas to 8 ft across the southern portions of the forecast waters from 07N southward between 96W and 120W. For the forecast, weak surface ridging will prevail W of 120W through early next week. The 8 ft seas and fresh winds around 129W will diminish by Mon night. The southerly swell in the southern forecast waters will subside by Sun. $$ AReinhart