000 AXPZ20 KNHC 070343 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Oct 7 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Lidia is centered near 16.4N 111.6W at 07/0300 UTC, moving west at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Peak seas are currently near 22 ft with the 12 ft seas extending 105 nm in the NW and SE quadrant and 90 nm in the NE and SW quadrants. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted around and SW of the center from 07N to 18N between 110W and 115W. Lidia will gradually turn toward the northwest and north is expected this weekend, followed by a slightly faster northeastward motion on Monday. Small intensity fluctuations are possible during the next couple of days, and Lidia could become a hurricane over the weekend. Swells generated by Lidia will begin to affect the west coast of Mexico and the Baja California peninsula on Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Meanwhile, very rough to high seas will impact the SW Mexico offshore waters through the weekend. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Lidia NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. South of Southern Mexico (EP99): Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized in association with an area of low pressure centered a couple of hundred miles southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Environmental conditions are expected to support further development of this system during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend. The disturbance is forecast to move slowly west- northwestward for the next day or so, and then turn northward and move toward the southern coast of Mexico late Sunday and Monday. Regardless of development, this system could produce heavy rainfall along portions of the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico through early next week. Interests in this area should monitor the progress of this system. This system has a high chance of development in 48 hours. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of El Salvador near 14N91W to a low pres near 13N97W 1007 mb to 15N103W. The monsoon trough resumes W of Lidia near 14N114W to a low pres near 12N126W 1008 mb to another low pres near 10N135W 1008 mb to 10N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 17N between 93W and 119W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 13N between 123W and 134W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the section above for details on Tropical Storm Lidia and EP99. Rough seas and strong winds persist south of Socorro Island and beyond 160 nm off Cabo Corrientes due to the outer periphery of Lidia. Farther north, a weak ridge continues to dominate the waters north of 15N. This is supporting gentle to moderate winds and seas ranging 5 to 7 ft off the Baja California coast. Light to gentle winds with seas to 3 ft are noted in the Gulf of California. Seas are around 5 ft near the entrance of the Gulf. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh winds are noted south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec near the area where EP99 is with seas to 7 ft. Across the rest of southern Mexico, gentle breezes are noted with 6 to 7 ft seas. Outside of the influence of Lidia, scattered thunderstorms are noted in the Gulf of Tehuantepec and off the Oaxaca offshore waters due to the broad low pressure associated with EP99. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Lidia will strengthen to a hurricane near 16.5N 112.3W Sat morning, move to 16.8N 113.0W Sat evening, weaken to a tropical storm near 17.3N 113.3W Sun morning, 17.9N 113.2W Sun evening, 18.5N 112.6W Mon morning, and strengthen to a hurricane near 19.0N 111.5W Mon evening. Lidia will weaken to a tropical storm near 20.5N 108.5W late Tue. Meanwhile, the broad area of low pressure currently near the Gulf of Tehuantepec is expected to become better organized, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early next week. Regardless of development, this system could produce heavy rainfall along portions of the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico through early next week. This system has a high chance of development within 48 hours. Dangerous marine conditions can be expected with both Lidia and EP99. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate SE winds are noted off the coast of Guatemala and El Salvador along the monsoon trough. S swell to 8 ft may be within the waters of this area, beyond 90 nm off the coast. Light breezes are noted elsewhere, with 5 to 7 ft combined seas in S swell. Showers and thunderstorms continue along the Panama and Costa Rica coasts. Otherwise, no significant convection is noted elsewhere at this time. For the forecast, the long-period S to SW swell will support combined seas around 8 ft off El Salvador and Guatemala beyond 90 nm through Sat. Light to gentle breezes will persist elsewhere with 5 to 7 ft combined seas into early next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the section above for details on Tropical Storm Lidia. Fresh NE winds are likely still occurring near 13N127W, with seas to 8 ft. Moderate to locally fresh SW winds and seas to 8 ft are between 100W and 120W south of Lidia. Gentle to moderate SW flow with 5 to 7 ft seas are noted elsewhere south of the monsoon trough. Southerly swell to 8 ft may be entering the waters as far north as 01N. Weak ridging dominates the waters north of 20N. Light to gentle breezes and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, weak surface ridging will prevail W of 120W through early next week. The southerly swell S of 01N will continue to support seas to 8 ft through early next week. $$ AReinhart