000 AXPZ20 KNHC 062159 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Oct 6 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Lidia is centered near 16.4N 111.2W at 06/2100 UTC, moving west at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Peak seas are currently near 20 ft with the 12 ft seas extending within 90 nm of center. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted within 200 nm of the center. Slight strengthening is possible during the next day or two, and Lidia could become a hurricane tonight or over the weekend. Swells generated by Lidia will begin to affect the west coast of Mexico and the Baja California peninsula on Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for details. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Lidia NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. South of Southern Mexico (EP99): An area of low pressure is centered about 250 miles southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Shower and thunderstorm activity is showing signs of becoming better organized. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development during the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early next week. The disturbance is forecast to move slowly west- northwestward for the next two days, and then turn northward and move closer to the southern coast of Mexico on Sunday and Monday. Regardless of development, this system could produce heavy rainfall along portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico through early next week and interests in this area should monitor the disturbance's progress. This system has a medium chance of development in 48 hours and a high chance in 7 days. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 14N91W to a 1008 mb low pressure near 13N96W to 15N104W, then resumes W of Lidia near 14N114W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 16N between 93W and 105W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 11N and W of 121W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the section above for details on Tropical Storm Lidia and EP99. Rough seas and strong winds persist south of Socorro Island and beyond 160 nm off Cabo Corrientes due to the outer periphery of Lidia. Farther north, a weak ridge continues to dominate the waters north of 10N. This is supporting gentle to moderate winds and seas ranging 4 to 6 ft off the Baja California coast. Gentle to moderate winds with seas to 4 ft are noted in the Gulf of California. Meanwhile, gentle breezes are noted off southern Mexico, with 5 to 7 ft combined seas in primarily S swell. Outside of the influence of Lidia, scattered thunderstorms are noted in the Gulf of Tehuantepec and off the Oaxaca offshore waters due to the broad low pressure associated with EP99. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Lidia will strengthen to a hurricane near 16.4N 112.0W Sat morning, move to 16.6N 112.8W Sat afternoon, 17.0N 113.4W Sun morning, weaken to a tropical storm near 17.6N 113.6W Sun afternoon, 18.2N 113.4W Mon morning, and 18.7N 112.7W Mon afternoon. Lidia will change little in intensity as it moves to 19.8N 109.8W by Tue afternoon. Meanwhile, the broad area of low pressure currently near the Gulf of Tehuantepec is expected to become better organized, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early next week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate SE winds are noted off the coast of Guatemala and El Salvador along the monsoon trough. S swell to 8 ft may be within the waters of this area, beyond 90 nm off the coast. Light breezes are noted elsewhere, with 5 to 7 ft combined seas in S swell. Showers and thunderstorms continue along the Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica coasts. Otherwise, no significant convection is noted elsewhere at this time. For the forecast, the long-period S to SW swell will support combined seas around 8 ft off El Salvador and Guatemala beyond 90 nm through Sat. Light to gentle breezes will persist elsewhere with 5 to 7 ft combined seas into early next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the section above for details on Tropical Storm Lidia. Fresh NE winds are likely still occurring near 15N125W, with seas to 8 ft. Fresh SW winds and seas to 8 ft are between 100W and 120W south of Lidia. Gentle to moderate SW flow with 5 to 7 ft seas are noted elsewhere south of the monsoon trough. Southerly swell to 7 ft may be entering the waters as far north as 01N. Weak ridging dominates the waters north of 20N. Light to gentle breezes and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, weak surface ridging will prevail W of 120W through early next week. The southerly swell S of 01N will continue to support seas to 7 ft through early next week. $$ ERA