000 AXPZ20 KNHC 061552 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Oct 6 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Lidia is centered near 16.5N 110.3W at 06/1500 UTC, moving west-northwest at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Peak seas are currently near 17 ft with the 12 ft seas extending within 90 nm of center. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted within 200 nm of the center. A slow west-northwestward motion is expected today, followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest, and then north, through the weekend. Slight strengthening is possible during the next day or two, and Lidia could become a hurricane at any time. Rough to high seas are expected to impact the southwestern Mexico and southern Baja California offshore waters through the weekend. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Lidia NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. South of Southern Mexico (EP99): An area of low pressure is centered about 200 miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the low is currently disorganized. However, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development during the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early next week. The disturbance is forecast to move slowly west-northwestward for the next two days, and then turn northward and move closer to the southern coast of Mexico on Sunday. This system has a medium chance of development in 48 hours and a high chance in 7 days. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Nicaragua near 13N88W to a 1008 mb low pressure near 13N96W to 15N103W, then resumes W of Lidia near 13N114W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 15N between 93W and 108W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 15N and W of 115W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the section above for details on Tropical Storm Lidia and EP99. Rough seas and strong winds persist south of Socorro Island and beyond 160 nm off Cabo Corrientes due to the outer periphery of Lidia. Farther north, a weak ridge continues to dominate the waters north of 20N. This is supporting gentle to moderate winds and seas ranging 4 to 6 ft off the Baja California coast. Gentle to moderate winds with seas to 4 ft are noted in the Gulf of California. Meanwhile, gentle breezes are noted off southern Mexico, with 5 to 7 ft combined seas in primarily S swell. Outside of the influence of Lidia, scattered thunderstorms are noted in the Gulf of Tehuantepec and off the Oaxaca offshore waters due to the broad low pressure associated with EP99. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Lidia will strengthen to a hurricane near 16.6N 111.0W this evening, move to 16.8N 112.0W Sat morning, 17.0N 112.6W Sat evening, weaken to a tropical storm near 17.5N 113.1W Sun morning, 18.2N 113.2W Sun evening, and 18.8N 112.5W Mon morning. Lidia will change little in intensity as it moves to 19.5N 110.5W by early Tue. Meanwhile, the area of low pressure currently centered about 200 miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is expected to become better organized, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early next week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate SE winds are noted off the coast of Guatemala and El Salvador along the monsoon trough. S swell to 8 ft may be within the waters of this area, beyond 90 nm off the coast. Light breezes are noted elsewhere, with 5 to 7 ft combined seas in S swell. Showers and thunderstorms continue along the Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica coasts. Otherwise, no significant convection is noted elsewhere at this time. For the forecast, the long-period S to SW swell will support combined seas around 8 ft off El Salvador and Guatemala beyond 90 nm through Sat. Light to gentle breezes will persist elsewhere with 5 to 7 ft combined seas into early next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the section above for details on Tropical Storm Lidia. Fresh NE winds are likely still occurring near 15N125W, with seas to 8 ft. Fresh SW winds and seas to 8 ft are between 100W and 120W south of Lidia. Gentle to moderate SW flow with 5 to 7 ft seas are noted elsewhere south of the monsoon trough. Southerly swell to 8 ft may be entering the waters as far north as 01N. Weak ridging dominates the waters north of 20N. Light to gentle breezes and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, the southerly swell S of 01N will dissipate this weekend, with seas remaining near 7 ft through early next week. $$ ERA