000 AXPZ20 KNHC 051559 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Oct 5 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Lidia is centered near 15.9N 109.8W at 05/1500 UTC, moving northwest at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Peak seas are currently around 15 ft. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted within 120 nm in the NW semicircle of the center. Lidia will reach hurricane strength continue to move generally westward through late Sat, then turn more NW before turning NE early next week and weakening. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Lidia NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 12N88W to 12N95W to 15N105W, and from 13N115W to 1010 mb low pressure near 13N125W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 11N to 13N between 94W and 97W, and within 60 nm in the NW quadrant of the low pressure centered near 13N125W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the section above for details on Tropical Storm Lidia. Outside of T.S. Lidia, surface ridging prevails across the offshore waters of Mexico, along with winds of moderate or weaker. The exception is near Lidia, where fresh to strong winds prevail S of 18N between 106W and 112W where seas are 6-9 ft. Seas are 4-6 ft elsewhere across the open waters, and 1-3 ft in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, Lidia will move to 16.1N 110.1W this evening, 16.1N 110.9W Fri morning, 16.0N 111.7W Fri evening, strengthen to a hurricane near 16.0N 112.6W Sat morning, 16.3N 113.5W Sat evening, and 16.9N 114.0W Sun morning. Lidia will weaken to a tropical storm near 17.7N 114.0W early Mon. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located well south- southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is associated with a trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development during the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early next week while the disturbance moves slowly west-northwestward. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Winds are moderate or weaker across the offshore waters, mainly southerly with the monsoon trough lifted N to along 12N/13N. Seas are 4-6 ft from offshore Colombia northward, and 6-8 ft in S swell offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands. Earlier convection across much of the offshore waters has diminished quite a bit during the past several hours. For the forecast, winds will be moderate or weaker across the offshore waters through most of the forecast period, except for locally fresh winds W of 90W Fri through Sat. Long-period southerly swell will continue offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands through today, with mainly moderate seas elsewhere through the forecast period, except locally to 8 ft near the fresh winds. Looking ahead, a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located well south-southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is associated with a trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development during the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early next week while the disturbance moves slowly west-northwestward. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the section above for details on Tropical Storm Lidia. Elsewhere, an area of low pressure located about 1200 nautical miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California near 13N125W is producing a small area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms as described in the monsoon trough section. Winds are moderate to fresh with seas of 7-8 ft. Winds are moderate or weaker across the offshore waters, with a surface trough from 30N123W to 26N133W disrupting the pressure gradient. Seas are mainly 6-7 ft N of the Equator, except locally 8 ft from 05N to 13N between 104W and 114W with SW flow feeding into the outer circulation of Lidia. SEas of 7-9 ft in S swell prevail S of the Equator. For the forecast, Lidia will move to 16.1N 110.1W this evening, 16.1N 110.9W Fri morning, 16.0N 111.7W Fri evening, strengthen to a hurricane near 16.0N 112.6W Sat morning, 16.3N 113.5W Sat evening, and 16.9N 114.0W Sun morning. Lidia will weaken to a tropical storm near 17.7N 114.0W early Mon. Meanwhile, development of the low pressure embedded in the monsoon trough, however unlikely, should be slow to occur while it moves little during the next couple of days. By this weekend, environmental conditions are forecast to become less conducive for further development. Winds of moderate or weaker will prevail across the remainder of the open waters through the next several days, locally fresh at times along and just N of the monsoon trough near the area of embedded low pressure along with seas of 7-8 ft there. Seas of 6-8 ft will prevail S of 20N, with 5-7 ft seas in northerly swell N of 20N decaying to 4-6 ft by early next week. $$ Christensen