000 AXPZ20 KNHC 050838 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Oct 5 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0810 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Lidia is centered near 15.7N 109.5W at 05/0900 UTC, moving northwest at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are currently around 14 ft. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted within 60 nm in the E semicircle and 120 nm in the W semicircle. Scattered moderate convection is noted elsewhere within 180 nm of the center, except 270 nm in the NW quadrant. A general northwest to west-northwest motion is expected through tonight. A turn toward the west is expected by Friday night followed by a turn back toward the west- northwest and then northwest over the weekend. Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next few days. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Lidia NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the SW Caribbean Sea near 13N79W to 13N94W to 16N106W, then continues SW of Lidia from 14N113W to 10N130W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 15N between 93W and 104W, from 07N to 12N between 107W and 118W, and from 11N to 15N between 115W and 128W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 10N between 83W and 86W, and from 05N to 10N between 126W and 130W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the section above for details on Tropical Storm Lidia. Outside of T.S. Lidia, surface ridging prevails across the offshore waters of Mexico, along with winds of moderate or weaker. The exception is near Lidia, where fresh to strong winds prevail S of 18N between 106W and 112W where seas are 6-9 ft. Seas are 4-6 ft elsewhere across the open waters, and 1-3 ft in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, Lidia will move to 15.9N 109.8W this afternoon, 16.1N 110.4W Fri morning, 16.0N 111.1W Fri afternoon, 15.9N 111.9W Sat morning, 16.0N 112.7W Sat afternoon, and 16.2N 113.3W Sun morning. Lidia will change little in intensity as it moves to 17.1N 114.2W early Mon. Fresh to strong winds may pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Fri night through Sun morning. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere through Sat, along with mainly moderate seas. Looking ahead, a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located well south-southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is associated with a trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development during the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early next week while the disturbance moves slowly west-northwestward. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Winds are moderate or weaker across the offshore waters, mainly southerly with the monsoon trough lifted N to along 12N/13N. Seas are 4-6 ft from offshore Colombia northward, and 6-8 ft in S swell offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands. Earlier convection across much of the offshore waters has diminished quite a bit during the past several hours. For the forecast, winds will be moderate or weaker across the offshore waters through most of the forecast period, except for locally fresh winds W of 90W Fri through Sat. Long-period southerly swell will continue offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands through today, with mainly moderate seas elsewhere through the forecast period, except locally to 8 ft near the fresh winds. Looking ahead, a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located well south-southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is associated with a trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development during the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early next week while the disturbance moves slowly west-northwestward. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the section above for details on Tropical Storm Lidia. Elsewhere, an area of low pressure located about 1200 nautical miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California near 13N125W is producing a small area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms as described in the monsoon trough section. Winds are moderate to fresh with seas of 7-8 ft. Winds are moderate or weaker across the offshore waters, with a surface trough from 30N123W to 26N133W disrupting the pressure gradient. Seas are mainly 6-7 ft N of the Equator, except locally 8 ft from 05N to 13N between 104W and 114W with SW flow feeding into the outer circulation of Lidia. SEas of 7-9 ft in S swell prevail S of the Equator. For the forecast, Lidia will move to 15.9N 109.8W this afternoon, 16.1N 110.4W Fri morning, 16.0N 111.1W Fri afternoon, 15.9N 111.9W Sat morning, 16.0N 112.7W Sat afternoon, and 16.2N 113.3W Sun morning. Lidia will change little in intensity as it moves to 17.1N 114.2W early Mon. Meanwhile, development of the low pressure embedded in the monsoon trough, however unlikely, should be slow to occur while it moves little during the next couple of days. By this weekend, environmental conditions are forecast to become less conducive for further development. Winds of moderate or weaker will prevail across the remainder of the open waters through the next several days, locally fresh at times along and just N of the monsoon trough near the area of embedded low pressure along with seas of 7-8 ft there. Seas of 6-8 ft will prevail S of 20N, with 5-7 ft seas in northerly swell N of 20N decaying to 4-6 ft by early next week. $$ Lewitsky