000 AXPZ20 KNHC 042205 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Oct 4 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2150 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Lidia is centered near 15.2N 108.9W at 04/2100 UTC, or about 350 nm SW of Manzanillo, Mexico, moving north- northwest at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are currently around 14 ft. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted within 180 nm in the W semicircle, 120 nm NE quadrant and 60 nm SE quadrant. A continued north-northwest motion with a reduction in forward speed is forecast during the next day or so. Beginning late Thursday, a much slower westward motion is expected. Some slow strengthening is forecast over the next few days. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Lidia NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 13N87W to 15N104W, then continues W of T.S. Lidia from 14N112W to 1008 mb low pres near 12N124W to 10.5N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 18N between 78W and 106W, and near the 1008 mb low pres from 10N to 14N between 122W and 128W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 10N between 116W and 138W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the section above for details on Tropical Storm Lidia. Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection is noted over most of the Mexican offshore waters to the south of 21N. Outside of T.S. Lidia, surface ridging prevails across the offshore waters of Mexico, along with winds of moderate or weaker. The exception is near Lidia, where fresh to strong winds prevail south of 18N and west of 107W. Seas are 5-6 ft in NW swell are across the waters W of 110W including offshore Baja California, and 4-6 ft in mixed swell elsewhere in the open waters. The exception is near Lidia, where seas are 6 to 8 ft south of 18N and west of 105W. In the northern Gulf of California, seas are 1-3 ft, and 2-4 ft in the southern Gulf of California. For the forecast, Lidia will move to near 16N110W Thu afternoon, 16N111W Fri afternoon, 16N113W Sat afternoon, 16N114.5W Sun afternoon, and near 16.5N115W Mon afternoon. NHC is forecasting Lidia to be a 60 kt tropical storm Sat through Mon. Elsewhere, fresh to strong winds may pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Fri night through Sun morning. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere through Sat along with mainly moderate seas. Looking ahead, a large, elongated area of showers and thunderstorms located well south of the coast of Guatemala is associated with a trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development during the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early next week while the disturbance moves slowly west- northwestward. This system should be located to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec by Sunday. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Mainly moderate SW winds are occurring to the south of the monsoon trough, locally fresh from 07N to 10N, west of 89W. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker. Seas are 5-7 ft in S swell across the offshore waters, except for 7 to 9 ft south of the Galapagos Islands in long period S swell, confirmed by a recent satellite altimeter pass. For the forecast, winds will be moderate or weaker across the offshore waters through most of the week, except for locally fresh SW winds from 06N to 10N, west of 88W through this evening. Long-period southerly swell will continue offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands through tonight, with mainly moderate seas elsewhere. Looking ahead, a large, elongated area of showers and thunderstorms located well south of the coast of Guatemala is associated with a trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development during the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early next week while the disturbance moves slowly west-northwestward. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the section above for details on Tropical Storm Lidia. Elsewhere, an area of 1008 mb low pressure along the monsoon trough near 12N124W is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Convection with that low is described above. Moderate to fresh NE to ENE winds and seas of 7 to 8 ft extend from the low northward to 19N, between 120W and 130W. Mainly moderate winds prevail across the remainder of the open waters, except for fresh S to SW winds from 03N to 10N between 102W and 125W. Seas are 7-9 ft in southerly swell S of 09N between 100W and 130W. Seas of mainly 5-7 ft in mixed swell prevail elsewhere, except N swell north of 18N. For the forecast, Lidia will move to near 16N110W Thu afternoon, 16N111W Fri afternoon, 16N113W Sat afternoon, 16N114.5W Sun afternoon, and near 16.5N115W Mon afternoon. NHC is forecasting Lidia to be a 60 kt tropical storm Sat through Mon. Meanwhile, development of the low near 12N124W, if any, should be slow to occur while it moves little during the next couple of days. By this weekend, environmental conditions are forecast to become less conducive for further development. Winds of moderate or weaker will prevail across the remainder of the open waters through the next several days, locally fresh at times along and just N of the monsoon trough near any transient low pressure areas. Southerly swell of 7-9 ft will wax and wane through the week and into the weekend from around 05N southward, decaying thereafter. $$ Hagen