000 AXPZ20 KNHC 040843 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Oct 4 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Lidia is centered near 14.0N 108.3W at 04/0900 UTC, moving north-northwest at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are currently around 12 ft. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 240 nm in the W semicircle and 30 nm in the E semicircle. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere from 16N to 21N between 105W and 110W. A northwest to north-northwest motion with a reduction in forward speed is forecast during the next day or so. Beginning late Thursday, a much slower westward motion is expected. Some slow strengthening is forecast over the next few days. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Lidia NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N72W to low pressure near 11N91W to 13N100W, then resumes WSW of Tropical Storm Lidia near 11.5N115W to low pressure near 12N125W to low pressure near 10N132W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 11N between 90W and 115W, from 01N to 10.5N between 118W and 134W, from 11N to 14N between 123W and 125W, and from 10N to 12N between 136W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the section above for details on Tropical Storm Lidia. Elsewhere, surface ridging prevails across the offshore waters of Mexico, along with winds of moderate or weaker. Seas are 5-7 ft in NW across the waters W of 110W including offshore Baja California, and 4-5 ft in mixed swell elsewhere in the open waters. In the Gulf of California, seas are 1-3 ft, except 3-4 ft near the entrance. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring along the coast and offshore Mexico from near Cabo Corrientes southward to the Gulf of Tehuantepec. For the forecast, Lidia will move to 14.8N 108.7W this afternoon, 15.3N 109.1W Thu morning, 15.7N 109.5W Thu afternoon, 15.8N 110.1W Fri morning, 15.7N 110.9W Fri afternoon, and 15.6N 111.8W Sat morning. Lidia will change little in intensity as it moves to 15.5N 113.4W early Sun, then to 15.9N 114.3W early Mon. Elsewhere, fresh to strong winds may pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Fri night through Sun morning. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere through Sat along with mainly moderate seas. Looking ahead, a large but elongated area of showers and thunderstorms located well S of the coast of Guatemala is associated with a trough of low pres. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development during the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early next week while the disturbance moves slowly WNW. This system could be located to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec by late in the weekend. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh SW winds are occurring to the south of the monsoon trough. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker. Seas are 4-7 ft in S swell across the offshore waters. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are occurring along the coast and offshore from Colombia northward. For the forecast, winds will be moderate or weaker across the offshore waters through most of the week, except for locally fresh SW winds from the Equator to 10N through this evening. New long- period southerly swell will build seas slightly offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands through tonight, with mainly moderate seas elsewhere. Looking ahead, a large but elongated area of showers and thunderstorms located well south of the coast of Guatemala is associated with a trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development during the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early next week while the disturbance moves slowly west-northwestward. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the section above for details on Tropical Storm Lidia. Elsewhere, an area of low pressure 1010 mb located about 1200 nautical miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula near 12N125W is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm of the low center. Locally fresh winds and seas of around 6-8 ft are associated with the low. Mainly moderate winds prevail across the open waters per recent ASCAT scatterometer passes, locally fresh N fo 27N between 132W and 140W, and also likely from 06N to 10N between 100W and 110W. Seas are 7-8 ft mainly in northerly swell across the waters N of 17N and W of 120W. Seas are 7-9 ft in southerly swell S of 08N between 105W and 130W. Seas of mainly 5-7 ft in mixed swell prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, Lidia will move to 14.8N 108.7W this afternoon, 15.3N 109.1W Thu morning, 15.7N 109.5W Thu afternoon, 15.8N 110.1W Fri morning, 15.7N 110.9W Fri afternoon, and 15.6N 111.8W Sat morning. Lidia will change little in intensity as it moves to 15.5N 113.4W early Sun, then to 15.9N 114.3W early Mon. Meanwhile, development of the low near 12N125W, if any, should be slow to occur while it moves little during the next couple of days. By this weekend, environmental conditions are forecast to become less conducive for further development. Elsewhere, winds of moderate or weaker will prevail across the remainder of the open waters through the next several days, locally fresh at times along and just N of the monsoon trough near any transient low pressure areas. The northerly swell across the northern waters will gradually decay through tonight. Meanwhile, southerly swell of 7-9 ft will wax and wane through the week and into the weekend from around 05N southward, decaying thereafter. $$ Lewitsky