000 AXPZ20 KNHC 032158 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Oct 3 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Lidia is centered near 12.8N 107.6W at 03/2100 UTC, or about 415 nm SSW of Manzanillo, Mexico, moving northwest at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 330 nm of the center in the NW semicircle. A NW to NNW motion will continue for the next several days. Gradual strengthening is forecast over the next few days, and Lidia could become a hurricane late this week. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Lidia NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 13N104W, then continues W of Tropical Storm Lidia near 11N110W to 1009 mb low pressure near 12N125W to 12N140W. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is seen from 03N to 13N between 77W and 101W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 11N between 101W and 105W, and from 04N to 12N between 116W and 132W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the section above for details on Tropical Storm Lidia. Elsewhere, surface ridging prevails across the offshore waters of Mexico. Moderate NNW winds prevail to the west of Baja California. Moderate N winds are in the immediate Gulf of Tehuantepec, also shown by the ASCAT satellite. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere. Seas are 5-7 ft in NW swell offshore Baja California, and 4-6 ft elsewhere across the open waters. Seas are 2-4 ft in the southern and central Gulf of California and 1-3 ft in the northern Gulf. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Lidia will move to 14.5N109W Wed afternoon, 16N110W Thu afternoon, 16N111W Fri afternoon, 16N112.5W Sat afternoon, and strengthen to a hurricane near 16N114W Sun afternoon. Lidia will begin directly affecting Mexico offshore forecast zones well to the WSW of Jalisco and Colima, and well to the south of Cabo San Lucas Thu and continue into the weekend. Winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec may increase to fresh to strong this weekend. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere through the week. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form a few hundred nm south of the coast of Central America during the next few days. Afterward, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or over the weekend while the system moves slowly westward or west-northwestward. This system could be located to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec by late in the weekend. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh SW winds are occurring to the south of the monsoon trough, from the Equator to 07N. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker. Seas are 4-7 ft in S swell across the offshore waters, confirmed by recent altimeter passes. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is occurring offshore Panama and Colombia. For the forecast, winds will be moderate or weaker across the offshore waters through most of the week, except for locally fresh SW winds from the Equator to 10N through Wed. New long- period southerly swell will build seas slightly offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands through Wed night, with mainly moderate seas elsewhere. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form a few hundred nm south of the coast of Central America during the next few days. Afterward, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or over the weekend while the system moves slowly westward or west-northwestward. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the section above for details on Tropical Storm Lidia. Elsewhere, recent ASCAT data shows mainly moderate NE winds N of 12N and W of 125W. Winds are mainly moderate or weaker elsewhere, except moderate to fresh S winds south of the monsoon trough between 100W and 130W. Seas are 7-9 ft in northerly swell N of 17N and west of 125W. Seas are 7-8 ft in SE swell S of 07N between 105W and 135W. Seas of 5-7 ft prevail elsewhere in mixed swell. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Lidia will move to 14.5N109W Wed afternoon, 16N110W Thu afternoon, 16N111W Fri afternoon, 16N112.5W Sat afternoon, and strengthen to a hurricane near 16N114W Sun afternoon. Elsewhere, the northerly swell across the northern waters will gradually decay through mid-week. The low pressure area embedded in the monsoon trough near 12N125W is forecast to continue to produce moderate to fresh winds and seas to 8 ft on the NW side before weakening mid-week while not moving much. Winds of moderate or weaker will prevail across the remainder of the open waters through the next several days. Meanwhile, southerly swell of 7-9 ft will wax and wane through the week and into the weekend from around 05N southward. $$ Hagen