000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010828
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Oct 1 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 101W/102W north of 05N, moving west at 
5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 
noted from 05N to 14N between 93W and 109W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N75W to 08N102W to 11N134W. 
The ITCZ extends from 11N134W to beyond 12N140W. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 08.5N 
between 78W and 94W, from 09.5N to 14N between 125W and 140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05.5N to 10.5N 
between 112W and 115W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging extends across the offshore waters of Mexico with
a surface trough from SW Arizona to across the northern Gulf of
California and Baja California Norte. Fresh to strong S-SW winds
prevail in the northern Gulf of California due a tight pressure 
gradient. Fresh to locally strong N winds are noted in the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec. Winds are mainly moderate or weaker elsewhere,
except locally fresh across the nearshore waters between Cabo San
Lazaro and Punta Eugenia. Seas are 4-6 ft across the open waters.
In the Gulf of California, seas are 4-7 ft in the northern Gulf,
and 1-3 ft elsewhere, except 3-4 ft near the entrance. A 
tropical wave is moving across portions of southern Mexico.
For more details, see above. 

For the forecast, mainly moderate seas will not vary much into
the middle of the week. Fresh to strong N winds will pulse in 
the immediate area of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, mainly at night, 
through tonight, then moderate to occasionally fresh thereafter.
Fresh to strong SW winds in the northern Gulf of California will
pulse through tonight. Winds will be moderate or weaker 
elsewhere through the early part of the week. Looking ahead,
environmental conditions around the tropical wave described above 
are expected to be favorable for development of this system 
during the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely
to form during the middle part of next week while it moves 
generally northwestward. This system has a low chance of 
tropical cyclone formation through the next 48 hours and a high 
chance through the next 7 days. Please refer to the latest NHC 
Tropical Weather Outlook at hurricanes.gov for the latest on this
system.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Winds are moderate or weaker across the offshore waters, except
moderate to fresh offshore Nicaragua. Seas are 3-5 ft N of 10N 
as well as offshore Colombia to the Azuero Peninsula, and 4-6 ft
in SE-S swell elsewhere S of 10N. Scattered thunderstorms are
occurring offshore Colombia and Panama.

For the forecast, winds will be moderate or weaker across the 
offshore waters through the next several days, except moderate to
fresh from the Equator to 06N Mon night through Tue, then from
03N to 08N from Tue night through Wed morning. Seas will not 
vary much through Mon evening, then will build slightly where the
moderate to fresh winds are. New southerly swell will build seas
slightly offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands by mid-week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Refer to the tropical waves section for details on a tropical
wave along 101W/102W.

High pressure N of the monsoon trough/ITCZ is supporting moderate
to fresh winds from 12N to 21N and W of 137W, along with seas of
7-9 ft in mixed NE and SE swell. A dissipating cold front 
extends from near La Jolla, California through 28N128W to 
30N138W. Fresh N-NE winds are noted N of the front per recent 
ASCAT scatterometer data. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere.
Seas of 7-10 ft in mainly SE swell covers the waters S of 12N 
and W of 95W. Seas are 5-7 ft in mixed swell elsewhere.

For the forecast, the moderate to fresh winds and 7-9 ft seas in
the W-central waters will diminish today. The weakening cold front
will dissipate this morning, with a remnant trough continuing to
push S along with accompanying moderate to fresh N-NE winds, 
reaching from 22N130W to 24N140W early Mon before diminishing. 
Winds of moderate or weaker will prevail across the remainder of
the open waters through the next several days. The southerly 
swell will decay slightly through Mon, however 7-8 ft seas will 
linger S of the Equator through the middle of the week.

$$
Lewitsky