000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010154
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Oct 1 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 101W north of 05N, moving west at 5 to 
10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
from 05N to 14N between 94W and 106W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N74W to 10N94W to 09N100W to
12N120W. The ITCZ extends from 12N120W to beyond 10N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 09N between 
86W and 94W, from 11N to 14N between 123W and 130W, and from 05N 
to 14N between 130W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging extends across the offshore waters of Mexico with
a surface trough from SW Arizona to across the northern Gulf of
California and Baja California Norte. Fresh to strong S-SW winds
prevail in the northern Gulf of California due a tight pressure 
gradient. Fresh to locally strong N winds are noted in the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere. Seas are 
5-7 ft in decaying NW swell offshore Baja California, and 4-6 ft 
elsewhere in the open waters. In the Gulf of California, seas are
4-7 ft in the northern Gulf, and 1-3 ft elsewhere, except 3-4 ft
near the entrance. A tropical wave is moving across portions of 
southern and southwestern Mexico. For details, see above. 

For the forecast, mainly moderate seas will not vary much into
the middle of next week. Fresh to strong N winds will pulse in 
the immediate area of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, mainly at night, 
through the weekend, then moderate to occasionally fresh
thereafter. Fresh to strong SW winds in the northern Gulf of 
California will diminish early Sun. Winds will be moderate or 
weaker elsewhere into the middle of next week. Looking ahead,
an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated 
with a tropical wave is located several hundred nautical miles S
of the coast of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear
favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form during the middle to latter part of
next week while it moves generally northwestward. This system 
has a low change of tropical cyclone formation through the next 
48 hours and a high chance through the next 7 days. Please refer 
to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at hurricanes.gov for 
the latest on this system.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Winds are moderate or weaker across the offshore waters. Seas 
are 3-5 ft N of 10N as well as offshore Colombia to the Azuero 
Peninsula, and 4-7 ft in SE-S swell elsewhere S of 10N, highest 
S-SW of the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, winds will be moderate or weaker across the 
offshore waters through the next several days, except moderate to
fresh from the Equator to 06N Mon night through Tue. Seas will
not vary much through Mon evening, then will build slightly where
the moderate to fresh winds are. New southerly swell will build
seas slightly offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands by mid-
week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure N of the monsoon trough/ITCZ is supporting moderate
to fresh winds from 13N to 22N and W of 132W. A dissipating cold
front is pushing just S of 30N per recent satellite imagery, with
moderate to fresh N winds behind it just N of 30N. Winds are 
moderate or weaker elsewhere. Seas of 7-9 ft in mixed SE and 
northerly swell covers the waters S of 22N and W of 130W. Seas of
7-10 ft in mainly SE swell covers the waters S of 13N between 
95W and 130W. Seas are 5-7 ft in mixed swell elsewhere.

For the forecast, any moderate to fresh winds will diminish by
early Sun. Please refer to the Offshore Waters within 250 nm of 
Mexico forecast for details on a tropical wave located several 
hundred nautical miles S of the coast of southern Mexico. The 
area of elevated seas W of 130W will decay to less than 8 ft by 
early Sun. The weak front near the northern waters will dissipate
while dropping S, while associated seas build to around 8 ft 
just S of 30N Sun afternoon through Tue night, with a brief 
accompanying fresh northerly wind shift behind it. Winds of 
moderate or weaker will prevail across the remainder of the open
waters through the next several days. The southerly swell will 
decay slightly by the end of the weekend, however 7-9 ft seas 
will linger S of the Equator through the middle of the week.

$$
Lewitsky