000 AXPZ20 KNHC 291544 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Sep 29 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 95W north of 07N to across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 15N between 88W and 100W. A tropical wave is analyzed along 140W from 03N to 16N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 18N and W of 130W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N85W to 10N132W. The ITCZ extends from 10N132W to 10N138W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 14N between 107W and 130W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Surface ridging extends across the offshore waters of Mexico with a surface trough along the Baja California Peninsula. Fresh to strong N winds are noted in the immediate Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere. Seas are 7-10 ft in NW swell offshore Baja California, and 4-6 ft elsewhere in the open waters. In the Gulf of California, seas are 1-3 ft except 3-4 ft near the entrance. A tropical wave is moving across the Gulf of Tehuantepec as described above. For the forecast, the NW swell offshore Baja California will decay early this weekend. Otherwise, mainly moderate seas will prevail. Fresh to strong N winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, mainly at night, through the weekend. Fresh to strong SW winds will develop in the northern Gulf of California this evening through Sun night due to a passing pre-frontal trough and weakening cold front. Winds may reach near gale force Sat night. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Mainly gentle winds are N of the monsoon trough with moderate S-SW winds S of the monsoon trough. Seas are 3-5 ft N of 07N as well as offshore Colombia to the Azuero Peninsula, and 4-7 ft in SE-S swell S of 07N, except 6-9 ft offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands, highest S of the Galapagos Islands. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are offshore Nicaragua northward mainly due to a departing tropical wave as described above. For the forecast, winds will be moderate or weaker across the offshore waters through the next several days. The southerly swell will gradually decay into the weekend. Otherwise, expect mainly moderate seas. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A tropical wave along 140W described above combined with high pressure elsewhere N of the monsoon trough/ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong winds from 11N to 20N and W of 133W with locally higher winds as depicted in a recent ASCAT scatterometer pass. Moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere N of 11N and W of 125W. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere. A large area of 7-11 ft seas dominates the waters W of 110W in mixed SE and NW swell, except up to 10-13 ft in the fresh to strong wind area with additional support from NE to E wind waves. Seas are 7-10 ft in more pure SE-S swell S of 02N. Seas are 4-6 ft across the remainder of the open waters. For the forecast, the tropical wave will move W of 140W today. Associated fresh to strong winds will diminish by early Sat. Winds of moderate or weaker will prevail elsewhere through the next several days. The elevated seas W of 110W will gradually decay through the weekend. A decaying cold front will push S of 30N this weekend with seas building to around 8 ft just S of 30N Sun night into early next week. The southerly swell will decay slightly by the end of the weekend, however 7-9 ft seas will linger S of the Equator through early next week. $$ ERA