000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250922
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Sep 25 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is analyzed along 115W from 03N to 18N, moving W
at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 
16N between 110W and 121W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 09N122W. The ITCZ 
continues from 10N129W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted within 300 nm S of the monsoon trough and E of 95W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge continues to dominate the offshore forecast 
waters of Baja California, centered on a 1020 mb high near 
30N124W. This pressure pattern is supporting moderate to fresh 
NW-N winds from near Punta Eugenia northward. Seas are 4-7 ft in 
NW swell offshore Baja California. Winds are moderate or weaker 
elsewhere, with seas of 3-5 ft, except 1-3 ft in the northern 
Gulf of California.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will continue to extend
southeastward across the offshore waters through Tue. Moderate 
to fresh NW-N winds offshore Baja California from near Cabo San 
Lazaro northward will increase to fresh to strong today and
continue through early Wed. Winds will then diminish to moderate
Wed through Fri as the Pacific ridge shifts NW. Moderate N winds
will pulse to strong across the Gulf of Tehuantepec on Tue  
and then again Thu night. Seas will gradually build 8 to 12 ft 
in new NW swell offshore Baja California beginning on Tue 
through Fri.

Looking ahead, low pressure may develop across the northern Gulf
of California by the end of the upcoming week, and induce strong
SW winds across a large portion of the Gulf. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, 
COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Winds are generally gentle to moderate elsewhere to the north of
05N, where seas are 3-5 ft. Moderate S to SW winds prevail 
elsewhere to the south of 05N, from offshore Ecuador to the 
Galapagos Islands. Seas there are 5 to 6 ft. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds prevail to the north 
of 05N, with seas of 3-5 ft. Moderate to fresh SW monsoonal 
winds will prevail to the S of 07N through mid week. Slight to 
moderate seas will prevail, highest offshore Ecuador to the 
Galapagos Islands, before seas build slightly region-wide in S-SW
swell beginning Wed. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The remnants of T.C. Fourteen-E are centered near 15N126.5W. 
Fresh to strong winds are noted with the low, with seas to 9 ft.

A surface trough prevails along 131W from 22N to 27N. No deep 
convection is evident with the trough. Associated winds are 
moderate with remnant 5 ft seas in mixed swell across the N side.
Elsewhere N of 20N, anticyclonic winds are moderate or weaker, 
and seas are 4-6 ft. S of 20N and to the west of Fourteen, the 
modest pressure gradient between a weak high pressure ridge along
28N and lower pressure near the ITCZ is yielding moderate ENE 
trade winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft in mixed N and SE swell.

A set of southerly swell is building seas to around 8 ft S of the
Equator and W of 115W.

For the forecast, the remnants of T.C. Fourteen-E will dissipate
while moving W through Tue. The surface trough near 131W will 
gradually shift W-SW and dissipate through Tue. Elsewhere, weak 
high pressure will prevail N of the monsoon trough and E of 120W 
through Wed and yield moderate or weaker winds. 

Looking ahead, a cold front will push SE of 30N140W on Tue with 
strong high pressure centered north of the Hawaiian Islands 
building SE across the waters N of the ITCZ late Tue through Thu.
This will freshen the trade wind flow south of 25N Tue night 
through Thu. NW swell associated with the front will push into 
the northern waters this afternoon, building seas to 7-11 ft N 
of 10N and W of 115W by the middle of the week. Meanwhile, the 
southerly swell will continue to build seas to around 8 ft NE of
03.4S120W through late Tue. Another set of SE swell will enter
the area S of the equator by mid week and spread N through Fri.

$$
ERA