000 AXPZ20 KNHC 250340 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Sep 25 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Post-Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E is centered near 15.0N 126.5W at 25/0300 UTC, moving west at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Peak seas as estimated to be 10 ft within 60 nm across the N semicircle. Scattered showers are noted within 45 nm of the center. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so, but the low is expected to open up into a trough by Tuesday. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the last Fourteen-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed along 114W from 03N to 18N, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 15N between 108W and 120W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 08N123W, then resumes from 11.5N127W to 09N137. The ITCZ continues from that point to 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 300 nm S of the monsoon trough. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface ridge continues to dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California, centered on a 1020 mb high near 31N124W. This pressure pattern is supporting moderate to fresh NW-N winds from near Punta Eugenia northward. Seas are 4-7 ft in NW swell offshore Baja California. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere, with seas of 3-5 ft, except 1-3 ft in the northern Gulf of California. For the forecast, the surface ridge will continue to extend southeastward across the offshore waters through Tue. Moderate to fresh NW-N winds offshore Baja California from near Cabo San Lazaro northward will increase to fresh to strong Mon evening through early Wed. Winds will then diminish to moderate Wed through Fri as the Pacific ridge shifts NW. Moderate N winds will pulse to strong across the Gulf of Tehuantepec Mon night and Tue night and then again Thu night. Seas will gradually build 8 to 12 ft in new NW swell offshore Baja California early Tue through Thu. Looking ahead, low pressure may develop across the northern Gulf of California by the end of the upcoming week, and induce strong SW winds across a large portion of the Gulf. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate NE gap winds are over and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo region to near 90W, where seas are 4 to 5 ft. Winds are generally gentle to moderate elsewhere to the north of 05N, where seas are 3-5 ft. Moderate S to SW winds prevail elsewhere to the south of 05N, from offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands. Seas there are 5 to 6 ft. For the forecast, moderate gap winds will prevail in the Gulf of Papagayo through Mon. Elsewhere, Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh SW monsoonal winds will prevail to the S of 07N through mid week. Slight to moderate seas will prevail, highest offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands, before seas build slightly region-wide in S-SW swell beginning Wed. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on Post- Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E. A surface trough continues along 130W from 22N to 27N. No deep convection is evident with the trough. Associated winds are moderate with remnant 5 ft seas in mixed swell across the N side. Elsewhere N of 20N, anticyclonic winds are moderate or weaker, and seas are 4-6 ft. S of 20N and to the west of Fourteen, the modest pressure gradient between a weak high pressure ridge along 28N and lower pressure near the ITCZ is yielding moderate ENE trade winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft in mixed N and SE swell. For the forecast, Post-Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E will become a remnant low and move to 14.9N 128.4W Mon morning, 14.6N 131.1W Mon evening, 13.9N 134.0W Tue morning, and dissipate Tue evening. The surface trough will gradually shift W-SW and dissipate through Tue. Elsewhere, weak high pressure will prevail N of the monsoon trough and E of 120W through Wed and yield moderate or weaker winds. Looking ahead, a cold front will push SE of 30N140W on Tue with strong high pressure centered north of the Hawaiian Islands building SE across the waters N of the ITCZ late Tue through Thu. This will freshen the trade wind flow south of 25N Tue night through Thu. NW swell associated with the front will push into the northern waters Mon afternoon, building seas to 7-11 ft N of 10N and W of 115W by the middle of the week. Meanwhile, new southerly swell will build seas to around 8 ft NE of 03.4S120W tonight through late Tue. Seas of around 8 ft will reach the Equator and W of 115W on Mon. $$ ERA