000 AXPZ20 KNHC 242237 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Sep 24 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2120 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Fourteen-E is centered near 15.2N 125.5W at 2100 UTC moving W or 270 deg at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Peak seas as estimated to be 10-11 ft within 90 nm across the NE quadrant. The low level center of Fourteen remained sheared by middle to upper level NW winds through midday today, and was mostly free of deep convection. However, in the past few hours, numerous moderate to strong convection has blossomed within 90 nm across the SE semicircle. Atmospheric conditions are not expected to improve along the path of Fourteen-E over the next few days as it moves westward. Unless this recent area of convection can persist near the center, Fourteen is expected to degenerate into a remnant low pressure center tonight or early Mon. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Fourteen-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed along 112W from 05N to 17N, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered associated convection is described below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N75W to 10N97W to 07N112W to 11N119W. ITCZ extends from 11N127W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 03N to 10N E of 87W, from 04.5N to 12N between 88W and 110W, and from 06N to 13N between 110W and 118W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 118W and 131W, and within 90 nm N of the ITCZ between 127W and 133W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface ridge continues to dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California, centered on a 1020 mb high near 31N124W. This pressure pattern is supporting moderate to locally fresh NW-N winds from near Punta Eugenia northward. Seas are 4-7 ft in NW swell offshore Baja California. Moderate N winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec has begun to weaken nearshore this afternoon, where seas are 4-5 ft. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere, with seas of 3-5 ft, except 1-3 ft in the northern Gulf of California. For the forecast, the surface ridge will continue to extend southeastward across the offshore waters through Tue. Moderate to fresh NW-N winds offshore Baja California will prevail from near Cabo San Lazaro northward tonight then increase to fresh to strong Mon evening through early Wed. Winds will then diminish to moderate Wed through Fri as the Pacific ridge shifts NW. Moderate N winds will pulse to strong across the Gulf of Tehuantepec Mon night and Tue night and then again Thu night. Seas will gradually build 8 to 12 ft in new NW swell offshore Baja California early Tue through Thu. Looking ahead, low pressure may develop across the northern Gulf of California by the end of the upcoming week, and induce strong SW winds across a large portion of the Gulf. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate NE gap winds are over and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo region to near 90W, where seas are 4 to 5 ft. Winds are generally gentle to moderate elsewhere to the north of 05N, where seas are 3-5 ft. Moderate S to SW winds prevail elsewhere to the south of 05N, from offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands. Seas there are 5 to 6 ft. For the forecast, moderate gap winds will prevail in the Gulf of Papagayo through Mon. Elsewhere, Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh SW monsoonal winds will prevail to the S of 07N through mid week. Slight to moderate seas will prevail, highest offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands, before seas build slightly region-wide in S-SW swell beginning Wed. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Depression Fourteen-E. The remnants of Kenneth are analyzed as a surface trough along 129W from 20N to 27N. No deep convection is evident with the remnants. Associated winds are moderate with remnant 6-7 ft seas in mixed swell across the N side. Elsewhere N of 20N, anticyclonic winds are moderate or weaker, and seas are 4-6 ft. S of 20N and to the west of Fourteen, the modest pressure gradient between a weak high pressure ridge along 28N and lower pressure near the ITCZ is yielding moderate ENE trade winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft in mixed N and SE swell. For the forecast, Tropical Depression Fourteen-E will continue moving westward over the next few days, steered by a narrow middle level ridge to its north, and degenerate to a remnant low. The remnant trough of Kenneth will gradually shift W-SW and dissipate through Tue. Elsewhere, weak high pressure will prevail N of the monsoon trough and E of 120W through Wed and yield moderate or weaker winds. Looking ahead, a cold front will push SE of 30N140W on Tue with strong high pressure centered north of the Hawaiian Islands building SE across the waters N of the ITCZ late Tue through Thu. This will freshen the trade wind flow south of 25N Tue night through Thu. NW swell associated with the front will push into the northern waters Mon afternoon, building seas to 7-11 ft N of 10N and W of 115W by the middle of the week. Meanwhile, new southerly swell will build seas to around 8 ft NE of 03.4S120W tonight through late Tue. Seas of around 8 ft will reach the Equator and W of 115W on Mon. $$ Stripling