000 AXPZ20 KNHC 241631 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Sep 24 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1540 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Fourteen-E is centered near 15.2N 123.9W 1007 mb at 1500 UTC moving W or 280 deg at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Peak seas as measured by a recent Cryosat-2 altimeter are currently around 10-12 ft. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 06N to 14.5N between 120W and 126W. Fourteen-E is encountering some moderate NW upper wind shear. Atmospheric conditions are not expected to improve along the path of Fourteen-E over the next few days as it moves just to the south of an upper level trough. No strengthening is therefore expected as the system moves west to west-southwest for the next few days. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Fourteen-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed along 111W from 05N to 17N, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered associated convection is described below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07.5N75W to 09.5N99W to 07.5N112W to 10.5N118W, then resumes SW of Tropical Depression Fourteen-E near 11.5N126W to 09N133W. ITCZ extends from 09N133W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 02.5N to 09N E of 88W, from 04N to 13N between 98W and 120W, and within 120 nm on either side of the boundaries between 126W and 135W. Scattered strong convection is within 200 nm of the coastline between 90W and 96W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface ridge continues to dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California, centered on a 1019 mb high near 32N125W. This pressure pattern is supporting moderate to fresh NW-N winds from near Punta Eugenia northward. Seas are 4-6 ft in NW swell offshore Baja California. Moderate to fresh N winds are pulsing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere, with seas of 3-5 ft, except 1-3 ft in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, the surface ridge will remain in control of the weather pattern across the region through Tue. Moderate to fresh NW-N winds offshore Baja California from near Cabo San Lazaro northward will pulse to fresh to strong Mon through Tue night. Fresh to strong N winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Mon night through Thu night. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere. Seas will not change much through Mon night, then will gradually build to 8-12 ft in NW swell offshore Baja California early Tue through Thu. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate offshore winds are over and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo region with seas to 5 ft. Seas are 3-4 ft elsewhere, except 4-5 ft offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, except moderate in the Gulf of Panama. South of the monsoon trough, gentle to moderate winds prevail. For the forecast, moderate gap winds will prevail in the Gulf of Papagayo through Mon. Elsewhere, winds will be moderate or weaker through Wed night, with southerly moderate to fresh winds S of the monsoon trough briefly on Thu. Slight to moderate seas will prevail, highest offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands, then will build slightly in S-SW swell region-wide beginning Wed. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Depression Fourteen-E. The remnants of Kenneth are analyzed as a surface trough along 128W from 22N to 27N. No deep convection is evident with the remnants. Associated winds are moderate to fresh with remnant 6-7 ft seas in mixed swell, mainly on the N side. Elsewhere, winds are mainly moderate or weaker, and seas are 4-7 ft. For the forecast, Tropical Depression Fourteen-E will continue moving westward over the next few days, steered by a narrow middle level ridge to its north. The remnant trough of Kenneth will gradually dissipate through Mon. Elsewhere, weak high pressure will prevail N of the monsoon trough through the remainder of the weekend with moderate or weaker winds. Looking ahead, a cold front will push SE of 30N140W early this week with strong high pressure building in across the waters N of the monsoon trough/ITCZ behind it by midweek. This will result in moderate to fresh trades N of 10N and W of 120W. NW swell associated with the front will push into the northern waters early next week, building seas to 7-11 ft N of 10N and W of 115W by the middle of the week. Meanwhile, new southerly swell will build seas to around 8 ft NE of 03.4S120W by early next week, with seas of around 8 ft near the Equator and W of 115W by the midweek. $$ Stripling