000 AXPZ20 KNHC 240853 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Sep 24 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Fourteen-E is centered near 14.3N 122.4W at 24/0900 UTC, moving west at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are currently around 7-8 ft. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 16N between 119W and 124W. Slight intensification is forecast, and the system is likely to become a tropical storm today. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Fourteen-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 110W from 02N to 17N, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 15N between 105W and 110W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 10N118W, then resumes W of Tropical Depression Fourteen-E near 11N126W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 150 nm on either side of the boundary between 94W and 136W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface ridge continues to dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California supporting moderate to fresh NW-N winds from near Punta Eugenia northward. Seas are 4-6 ft in NW swell offshore Baja California. Moderate to fresh N winds are pulsing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere, with seas of 3-5 ft, except 1-3 ft in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, the surface ridge will remain in control of the weather pattern across the region into the start of next week. Moderate to fresh NW-N winds offshore Baja California from near Cabo San Lazaro northward will pulse to fresh to strong Mon through Tue night before back to moderate to fresh thereafter. Fresh to strong N winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Mon night through Thu night. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere. Seas will not change much through Mon night, then will gradually build to 7-11 ft in NW swell offshore Baja California thereafter. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate offshore winds are pulsing over and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo with seas to 5 ft. Seas are 2-4 ft elsewhere, except 4-5 ft offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, except moderate in the Gulf of Panama. South of the monsoon trough, gentle to moderate winds prevail. For the forecast, moderate gap winds will prevail in the Gulf of Papagayo through this morning. Elsewhere, winds will be moderate or weaker through Wed night, with southerly moderate to fresh winds S of the monsoon trough briefly on Thu. Slight to moderate seas will prevail, highest offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands, where they may build slightly in S-SW swell by the middle of next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Depression Fourteen-E. The remnants of Kenneth are analyzed as a surface trough along 127W from 22N to 27N. No deep convection is evident with the remnants. Associated winds are moderate to fresh with remnant 5-6 ft seas in mixed swell, mainly on the N side. Elsewhere, winds are mainly moderate or weaker, and seas are 4-7 ft. For the forecast, Tropical Depression Fourteen-E will strengthen to a tropical storm near 14.6N 124.4W this afternoon, move to 14.7N 126.9W Mon morning, 14.6N 129.3W Mon afternoon, 14.2N 132.0W Tue morning, 13.6N 135.0W Tue afternoon, and weaken to a tropical depression near 13.0N 138.0W Wed morning. Fourteen-E will become a remnant low as it moves to 11.8N 144.4W by early Thu. The remnants of Kenneth will dissipate today. Elsewhere, weak high pressure will prevail N of the monsoon trough through the remainder of the weekend with moderate or weaker winds. Looking ahead, a cold front will push SE of 30N140W early this week with strong high pressure building in across the waters N of the monsoon trough/ITCZ behind it by midweek. This will result in moderate to fresh trades N of 10N and W of 120W. NW swell associated with the front will push into the northern waters early next week, building seas to 7-11 ft N of 10N and W of 115W by the middle of the week. Meanwhile, a set of southerly swell will build seas to around 8 ft NE of 03.4S120W by early next week, with seas of around 8 ft near the Equator and W of 115W by the midweek. $$ ERA