000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240326
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Sep 24 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Fourteen-E is centered near 13.9N 121.7W at
24/0300 UTC, moving west at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with
gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are currently around 7-8 ft. Numerous 
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 15N
between 119W and 123W. Slight intensification is expected during 
the next couple of days. The system is forecast become a 
tropical storm by Sunday.
 
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at website 
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Fourteen-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 109W from 03N to 17N, moving W at 
around 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 
noted from 04N to 14N between 104W and 113W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 11N115W, then resumes
W of Tropical Depression Fourteen-E near 13N124W to 09N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 250 nm S of the
boundary. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja 
California supporting moderate to fresh NW-N winds from near
Punta Eugenia northward. Seas are 5-7 ft in NW swell offshore
Baja California. Fresh N winds are pulsing in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere, with seas of
4-6 ft, except 1-3 ft in the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will remain in control of 
the weather pattern across the region into the start of next 
week. NW-N winds offshore Baja California will pulse to moderate
to fresh from near Cabo San Lazaro northward tonight, then fresh
to strong Sun through Tue night before back to moderate to fresh
thereafter. Fresh N winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
through Mon, then fresh to strong Mon night through Thu night. 
Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere. Seas will not change 
much through Mon night, then will gradually build to 7-11 ft in 
NW swell offshore Baja California thereafter.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, 
COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh offshore winds are pulsing over and downstream
the Gulf of Papagayo with seas to 6 ft. Seas are 2-4 ft 
elsewhere, except 4-6 ft offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos 
Islands. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere north of the 
monsoon trough, except moderate in the Gulf of Panama. South of 
the monsoon trough, gentle to moderate winds prevail. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh gap winds will prevail in 
the Gulf of Papagayo through early Sun. Elsewhere, winds will be
moderate or weaker through Wed night, with southerly moderate to
fresh winds S of the monsoon trough briefly on Thu. Slight to 
moderate seas will prevail, highest offshore Ecuador to the 
Galapagos Islands, where they may build slightly in S-SW swell by
the middle of next week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on new
Tropical Depression Fourteen-E.

The remnants of Kenneth are analyzed as a 1012 mb low pressure 
area near 23N126W along a surface trough. No deep convection is 
evident with the remnants. Associated winds are moderate to fresh
with remnant 7-8 ft seas in mixed swell, mainly on the NW side. 
Elsewhere, winds are mainly moderate or weaker. Seas are 5-7 ft 
elsewhere W of 105W, and 3-6 ft E of 105W.

For the forecast, Tropical Depression Fourteen-E will strengthen
to a tropical storm near 14.3N 123.9W Sun morning, move to 14.5N
126.6W Sun evening, 14.5N 129.1W Mon morning, 14.4N 131.7W Mon 
evening, 14.0N 134.6W Tue morning, and 13.6N 137.7W Tue evening. 
Fourteen-E will weaken to a remnant low over 13.1N 144.0W 
by late Wed. The remnants of Kenneth will gradually dissipate 
through the end of the weekend while associated winds and seas 
diminish and subside. Elsewhere, weak high pressure will prevail 
N of the monsoon trough through the remainder of the weekend with
moderate or weaker winds.

Looking ahead, a cold front may push just SE of 30N140W for the 
start of next week with strong high pressure building in across 
the waters N of the monsoon trough/ITCZ behind it by the middle
of next week. This will result in moderate to fresh trades N of 
10N and W of 120W. NW swell associated with the front will push 
into the northern waters early next week, building seas to 7-11 
ft N of 10N and W of 115W by the middle of next week. Meanwhile, 
a set of southerly swell will build seas to around 8 ft NE of 
03.4S120W by early next week, with seas of around 8 ft near the
Equator and W of 115W by the middle of next week.

$$
ERA