000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230857
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Sep 23 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central East Pacific Invest 97E: Showers and thunderstorms have 
changed little in organization in association with a broad area 
of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of 
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. A tropical
wave is analyzed in this area, with axis along 116W from 05N-20N.
Scattered moderate convection is noted within this wave from 01N
to 18N between 114W and 121W. Winds are currently peaking to 20 
kt and seas to 8 ft. Gradual development of the disturbance is 
likely, and a tropical depression is expected to form late this 
weekend or early next week while the system moves generally 
westward across the central and western parts of the eastern 
Pacific basin. This area has a medium chance of tropical cyclone
formation through 48 hours and a high chance through the next 7 
days. 

Please read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Please read the Special Features section for details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 12N116W to 10N140W. 
Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted from 03N to 
14N between 119W and 130W. Scattered showers are noted from 03N
to 14N between 91W and 107W and along the trough and W of 134W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja 
California supporting gentle to moderate NW winds and seas of 
5-7 ft. In the Gulf of California, winds are mainly gentle with 
seas of 1-3 ft, except 3-4 ft near the entrance. Fresh to strong
N-NE winds are noted in and downwind of the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
with seas of 4-6 ft. Elsewhere over the Mexico offshore waters, 
light to gentle winds with seas of 4-6 ft in mixed SW and NW 
swell prevail.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will remain in control of 
the weather pattern across the region into the start of next 
week. Moderate NW to N winds over waters W of Baja California 
will increase to fresh to locally strong from near Cabo San
Lazaro northward this morning as high pressure strengthens and 
builds SE into the area. Seas W of Baja California will remain 
5-7 ft through Mon night, then may build to 7-11 ft thereafter in
NW swell. Fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will 
dissipate today, then pulse again starting on Tue. Winds will be 
moderate or weaker elsewhere.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, 
COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh offshore winds are noted over and downstream 
the Gulf of Papagayo, with seas to 4 ft. Seas are 3-5 ft 
elsewhere. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere north of the 
monsoon trough, except moderate in the Gulf of Panama. South of 
the monsoon trough, gentle to moderate winds prevail. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh gap winds will prevail in 
the Gulf of Papagayo through today. Elsewhere, winds will be 
moderate or weaker through the next several days. Slight to 
moderate seas will prevail, highest offshore Ecuador to the 
Galapagos Islands, where they may build slightly in S-SW swell by
the middle of next week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on a 
broad area of low pressure along a tropical wave near 116W.

The remnants of Kenneth are analyzed as a 1012 mb low pres near
22N125W with trough extending from 16N-27N and 125W. Associated 
winds are fresh to strong along with 8-9 ft seas, mainly within
60 nm in the northern semicircle of the low. Elsewhere, winds 
are mainly moderate or weaker, except fresh S of the monsoon 
trough between 115W and 125W. NW-N swell extends from offshore 
California to S of 30N between 119W and 127W with seas to around 
7 ft. Seas are 5-7 across the remainder of the waters W of 108W,
and 3-6 ft E of 108W, lowest in the lee of the Galapagos 
Islands.

For the forecast, other than the broad area of low pressure 
along the tropical wave near 116W, weak high pressure will 
prevail N of the monsoon trough through the weekend with 
moderate or weaker winds. Meanwhile, the areas of seas of around 
8 ft will decay later tonight, with seas of 4-7 ft across the 
remainder of the waters. Looking ahead, a cold front may push 
just SE of 30N140W for the start of next week with strong high 
pressure building in across the waters N of the monsoon 
trough/ITCZ behind it. This will result in moderate to fresh 
trades N of 10N and W of 120W by the middle of next week. A set 
of southerly swell will build seas to around 8 ft NE of 03.4S120W
by early next week, with seas of 7-9 ft S of 04N and W of 115W 
by the middle of next week. Meanwhile, NW swell associated with 
the frontal system N of the area will push into the northern 
waters early next week building seas to 8-11 ft N of 10N and W 
of 115W by the middle of next week.

$$
ERA