000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222002
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Sep 22 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1920 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Invest 97E in the Central East Pacific: Showers and 
thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located several 
hundred nautical miles south of the southern tip of the Baja 
California peninsula along 114W continue to show signs of 
organization. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted from 09N to 16N between 112W and 116W. Winds are currently
around 20 kt and seas to around 7 ft. Further development of 
the disturbance is likely, and a tropical depression is expected 
to form over the weekend or early next week while the system 
moves generally westward across the central and western parts of 
the eastern Pacific basin. This area has a medium chance of 
tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours and a high chance 
through the next 7 days. Please read the latest NHC Tropical 
Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 114W from 03N to 18N, moving W at 
10-15 kt. Please read the Special Features section for more 
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from Colombia at 10N75W to 08N140W, 
then resumes from 15N109W to 06N125W to beyond 10N140W. 
Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted from 02N
to 09N between 77W and 86W, from 11N to 15.5N between 96W and
104W, and from 02N to 10N between 117W and 127W. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 13N
between 90W and 96W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja 
California supporting gentle to moderate NW winds and seas of 
5-7 ft per recent altimeter data. In the Gulf of California,
winds are mainly gentle with seas of 1-3 ft, except 3-4 ft near
the entrance. Fresh to locally strong N-NE winds are noted in 
and downwind of the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas of 4-6 ft. 
Elsewhere over the Mexico offshore waters, light to gentle winds 
with seas of 4-6 ft in mixed SW and NW swell prevail.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will remain in control of 
the weather pattern across the region into the start of next 
week. Moderate NW to N winds over waters W of Baja California 
will increase to fresh to locally strong from near Cabo San
Lazaro northward, starting early Sat as the parent high pressure
strengthens and builds SE into the area. Seas W of Baja 
California will remain 5-7 ft through Mon night, then may build
to 7-11 ft thereafter in NW swell. Fresh to locally strong winds
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will pulse through early Sat, and then
again starting early Tue. Winds will be mainly moderate or 
weaker elsewhere.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, 
COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh offshore winds are noted over and downstream 
the Gulf of Papagayo, with 4-6 ft seas. Seas are 3-5 ft 
elsewhere. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere north of the 
monsoon trough, except moderate in the Gulf of Panama. South of 
the monsoon trough, gentle to moderate winds prevail. Deep 
convection as described above is occurring from western Colombia 
and S of the Gulf of Panama to around 81W.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh gap winds will prevail in 
the Gulf of Papagayo through Sat. Elsewhere, winds will be 
moderate or weaker through the next several days. Slight to 
moderate seas will prevail, highest offshore Ecuador to the 
Galapagos Islands, where they may build slightly in S-SW swell by
the middle of next week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on a 
broad area of low pressure along a tropical wave near 114W.

Broad low pressure, the remnants of Kenneth, are near 22N125.5W.
Associated winds are 20-30 kt along with 8-10 ft seas, mainly in
the NW semicircle. Remnant scattered moderate convection is 
sheared off the NE within 420 nm NE of 24N123.5W. The remnant 
low of Kenneth is forecast to continue to weaken and eventually 
dissipate on Sat. Associated winds and seas will diminish below
criteria Sat night.

Elsewhere, winds are mainly moderate or weaker, except fresh S of
the monsoon trough between 110W and 122W. NW-N swell extends 
from offshore California to S of 30N between 119W and 127W with 
seas to around 8 ft. Easterly swell is supporting seas to around 
8 ft in the W-central waters from about 13N to 17N and W of 
138W. Seas are 5-7 across the remainder of the waters W of 108W,
and 3-6 ft E of 108W, lowest in the lee of the Galapagos 
Islands.

For the forecast, other than the remnants of Kenneth and the 
broad area of low pressure along the tropical wave near 
114W, weak high pressure will prevail N of the monsoon trough 
through the weekend with mainly moderate or weaker winds. 
Meanwhile, the areas of seas of around 8 ft will decay later
tonight, with seas of 4-7 ft across the remainder of the waters.

Looking ahead, a weakening cold front may push just SE of 30N140W
for the start of next week with strong high pressure building in
across the waters N of the monsoon trough/ITCZ behind it. This
will result in moderate to fresh trades N of 10N and W of 120W by
the middle of next week. A set of southerly swell will build seas
to around 8 ft NE of 03.4S120W by early next week, with seas of 
7-9 ft S of 04N and W of 115W by the middle of next week. 
Meanwhile, NW swell associated with the frontal system N of the 
area will push into the northern waters early next week building 
seas to 7-10 ft N of 10N and W of 118W by the middle of next 
week.

$$
Lewitsky