000 AXPZ20 KNHC 221518 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Sep 22 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1430 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Post-Tropical Cyclone Kenneth is centered near 20.5N 125.8W at 22/1500 UTC, moving north at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Seas of 8 to 10 ft are present, mainly in the NW semicircle. Remnant scattered moderate isolated strong convection is sheared off the NE within 480 nm in the NE quadrant. The remnant low of Kenneth is forecast to continue to weaken and eventually dissipate by Sat evening. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Kenneth NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Central East Pacific: Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred nautical miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula are beginning to show signs of organization. Currently a tropical wave is analyzed along 112W/113W. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 210 nm of 11.5N113W where broad low pressure may be in the process of developing. Nearby wind speeds are up to 20 kt with seas of around 7 ft. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for further development of this disturbance during the next several days. A tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend or early next week while the system moves generally westward across the central and western parts of the eastern Pacific basin. This area has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours and a high chance through the next 7 days. Please read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 112W/113W from 02N to 18N, moving W at around 10 kt. Please read the Special Features section for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from Colombia at 11N74W to 07N102W, then resumes from 12N108W to 07N123W to beyond 11N140W. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted from 01N to 08N between 77W and 81W, and from 12N to 16N between 94W and 101W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 12N between 89W and 92W, from 08N to 11N between 100W and 106W, and from 02N to 10N between 117W and 126W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California supporting gentle to moderate NW winds and seas of 5-7 ft. In the northern Gulf of California, moderate winds and seas of 2-3 ft are ongoing. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere in the Gulf, with seas of 1-3 ft, except 3-4 ft near the entrance to the Gulf. Fresh to locally strong N-NE winds are noted in and downwind of the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas of 4-6 ft. Elsewhere over the Mexico offshore waters, light to gentle winds with seas of 4-6 ft prevail, in NW swell offshore Baja California and S-SW swell elsewhere. For the forecast, the surface ridge will remain in control of the weather pattern across the region into the start of next week. Moderate NW to N winds over waters W of Baja California will increase to fresh to locally strong from near Cabo San Lazaro northward, starting early Sat as the high pressure strengthens and builds SE into the area. Seas W of Baja California will remain 5-7 ft through Tue, then may build thereafter in NW swell. Fresh to locally strong winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will pulse through early Sat. Winds will be mainly moderate or weaker elsewhere. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh offshore winds are noted over and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo, with 4-6 ft seas. Seas are 3-5 ft elsewhere. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. South of the monsoon trough, gentle to moderate winds prevail. Deep convection as described above is occurring from western Colombia and S of the Gulf of Panama to around 81W. For the forecast, moderate to fresh gap winds will prevail in the Gulf of Papagayo through today. Elsewhere, winds will be moderate or weaker through the next several days. Slight to moderate seas will prevail, highest offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands, where they may build slightly in S-SW swell by the middle of next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on now Post-Tropical Remnant Low Kenneth, and on a broad area of low pressure along a tropical wave near 112W/113W. Elsewhere, winds are mainly moderate or weaker. NW-N swell extends from offshore California to S of 30N between 119W and 128W with seas to around 8 ft. Easterly swell is supporting seas to around 8 ft in the W-central waters from about 12N to 17N and W of 136W. Seas are 5-7 across the remainder of the waters W of 110W, and 3-6 ft E of 110W, lowest in the lee of the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, other than Post-Tropical Remnant Low Kenneth and the broad area of low pressure along the tropical wave near 112W/113W, weak high pressure will prevail N of the monsoon trough through the weekend with mainly moderate or weaker winds. Meanwhile, the areas of seas of around 8 ft will decay by early Sat, with seas of 4-7 ft across the remainder of the waters. Looking ahead, a weakening cold front may push just SE of 30N140W for the start of next week with strong high pressure building in across the waters N of the monsoon trough/ITCZ behind it. This will result in moderate to fresh trades N of 10N and W of 120W by the middle of next week. A set of southerly swell will build seas to around 8 ft NE of 03.4S120W early next week, with seas of 7-9 ft S of 04N and W of 115W by the middle of next week. Meanwhile, NW swell associated with the frontal system N of the area will push into the northern waters early next week building seas to 7-10 ft N of 20N by the middle of next week. $$ Lewitsky