000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220859
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Sep 22 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Tropical Depression Kenneth is centered near 19.4N 126.0W at
22/0900 UTC, moving north at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with
gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are near 11 ft within 30 nm of center 
in the N semicircle. Scattered moderate convection is from 21N 
to 26N between 120W and 126W. Additional weakening is forecast, 
and Kenneth is expected to become a remnant low later today.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml
and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N85W to 11N107W, then resumes 
from 10N115W to 11N140W. A surface trough extends from 15N110W to
08N112W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 15N 
between 105W and 124W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja 
California supporting gentle to moderate NW winds and seas of 
5-7 ft. In the northern Gulf of California, moderate winds and 
seas of 2 to 3 ft are ongoing. Light to gentle winds prevail 
elsewhere in the Gulf, with seas of 1-3 ft, except 3-4 ft near 
the entrance to the Gulf. Elsewhere over the Mexico offshore 
waters, light to gentle winds with seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail. 

For the forecast, the surface ridge will remain in control of the
weather pattern across the region into the start of next week. 
Moderate NW to N winds over waters W of Baja California will 
increase to fresh starting Sat night as the high pressure
strengthens and builds SE into the area. Seas W of Baja
California will remain 5 to 7 ft. Fresh winds in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec will pulse tonight. Moderate SW winds in the 
northern Gulf of California will diminish later today.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, 
COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh winds are noted over and downstream the Gulf 
of Papagayo. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere north of the
monsoon trough. South of the monsoon trough, gentle winds 
prevail. Seas are 3 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh gap winds will prevail in 
the Gulf of Papagayo through today. Elsewhere, light to gentle 
winds will prevail. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on 
Tropical Depression Kenneth.

Moderate winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are impacting waters from 
14N to 28N, W of Kenneth. Moderate southerly winds are south of 
06N along with seas of 5 to 7 ft in long period SE swell. For the
remainder of the area, winds are moderate or weaker with seas of
4-7 ft. 

For the forecast, aside from Tropical Depression Kenneth, a trough 
of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the 
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing a 
broad area of showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of 
this system is possible over the next several days, and a 
tropical depression could form by late this weekend or early next
week while it moves generally westward across the central and 
western part of the eastern Pacific basin. Elsewhere, high 
pressure will prevail across the northern waters, north of 20N 
and west of 110W. Under the influence of this system, gentle to 
moderate anticyclonic flow is expected with seas in the 4-7 ft 
range.

$$
ERA