000 AXPZ20 KNHC 220328 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Sep 22 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Tropical Storm Kenneth is centered near 18.5N 125.9W at 22/0300 UTC, moving north-northwest at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are near 12 ft within 30 nm of center in the N semicircle. Scattered moderate from 20N to 30N between 121W and 126W. A northward motion is expected to begin later tonight and continue through Saturday. Additional weakening is forecast, and Kenneth is expected to become a remnant low on Friday. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 13N108W to 06N122W, then resumes from 10N129W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 15N between 105W and 122W, and from 09N to 15N and W of 137W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California supporting gentle to moderate NW winds and seas of 5-7 ft. In the northern Gulf of California, moderate winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are ongoing. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere in the Gulf, with seas of 1-3 ft, except 3-4 ft near the entrance to the Gulf. Elsewhere over the Mexico offshore waters, light to gentle winds with seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail. For the forecast, the surface ridge will remain in control of the weather pattern across the region into the start of next week. Moderate NW to N winds over waters W of Baja California will increase to fresh starting Sat night as the high pressure strengthens and builds SE into the area. Seas W of Baja California will remain 5 to 7 ft. Fresh winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will pulse tonight and Fri night. Moderate SW winds in the northern Gulf of California will diminish tonight. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate winds are noted over and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. South of the monsoon trough, gentle winds prevail. Seas are 3 to 5 ft. For the forecast, moderate to fresh gap winds will prevail in the Gulf of Papagayo through Fri. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will prevail. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Kenneth. Moderate winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are impacting waters from 14N to 28N, W of Tropical Storm Kenneth. Moderate southerly winds are south of 06N along with seas of 5 to 7 ft in long period SE swell. For the remainder of the area, winds are moderate or weaker with seas of 4-7 ft. For the forecast, aside from Tropical Storm Kenneth, a low pressure trough located several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing a broad area of showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is possible over the next several days, and a tropical depression could form by late this weekend or early next week while it moves generally westward across the central and western part of the eastern Pacific basin. Elsewhere, high pressure will prevail across the northern waters, particularly north of 20N and west of 110W. Under the influence of this system, gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow is expected with seas in the 4-7 ft range. $$ ERA