889 
AXPZ20 KNHC 210838
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Sep 21 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Tropical Storm Kenneth is centered near 17.5N 125.6W at 21/0900
UTC, moving northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with
gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are near 14 ft. Numerous moderate to 
scattered strong convection is noted from 15N to 21N between 122W
and 127W. Weakening is forecast to start later today, with the
system expected to degenerate into a remnant low in 36 to 48 
hours. A turn to the north-northwest and then the north is 
expected later today and early Friday. Please read the latest 
HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at 
website

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for 
more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 10N98W to 08N120W. It 
resumes from 11N133W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate isolated 
strong convection is noted from 03N to 14N E of 115W and from 
10N to 15N between 135W and 140W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja 
California supporting moderate NW winds and seas of 5-7 ft. In 
the northern Gulf of California, fresh to strong winds and seas 
of 3-4 ft prevail. Gentle winds prevail elsewhere in the Gulf,
with seas of 1-3 ft, except 3-4 ft near the entrance to the 
Gulf. Elsewhere over the Mexico offshore waters, light to gentle 
winds with seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail. 

For the forecast, the surface ridge will remain in control of the
weather pattern across the region into the weekend. Moderate NW
to N winds will prevail over the waters west of Baja California,
with seas of 5-7 ft. Fresh winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will
occur tonight through Fri. Fresh to locally strong SW winds may 
will prevail in the northern Gulf of California today.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, 
COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate winds are noted over and downstream the Gulf of
Papagayo. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere north of the 
monsoon trough. South of the monsoon trough, gentle to locally 
moderate winds prevail. Seas are 3 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh gap winds will prevail in 
the Gulf of Papagayo through Fri. Elsewhere, light to gentle 
winds will prevail. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on 
Tropical Storm Kenneth.

A 1006 mb low pressure center is nearing 13N140W, embedded 
within the monsoon trough. Strong NE winds prevail N of the 
center, from 13N to 15N W of 137W. Seas in the area are 8 to 10 
ft. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh winds and seas of 6-8 ft
are impacting the waters north of the monsoon trough to 20N and 
west of Tropical Storm Kenneth. Seas of 8-9 ft are found N of 29N
between 121W and 130W. Mainly moderate southerly winds are south
of 04N along with seas of 5 to 7 ft in long period SE swell. 
Gentle anticyclonic winds and 4-5 ft seas are north of 23N 
between 120W and 135W under a weak pressure pattern. For the 
remainder of the area, winds are moderate or weaker with seas of 
4-7 ft. 

For the forecast aside from Tropical Storm Kenneth, high 
pressure will prevail across the northern waters, particularly 
north of 20N and west of 110W. Under the influence of this 
system, gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow is expected with 
seas in the 4-7 ft range. NW swell with seas of 8 ft or greater 
will gradually decay over the next day or so. South of 05N, 
moderate southerly winds will prevail, with moderate southerly 
swell persisting through the weekend.

$$
AL