000 AXPZ20 KNHC 202100 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Sep 20 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Tropical Storm Kenneth is centered near 15.7N 124.2W at 20/2100 UTC, moving west-northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are near 13 ft, mainly in the NW quadrant. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 10N to 18N between 120W and 127W. Some slight strengthening is likely tonight, before colder water and an unfavorable environmental leads to weakening starting Thu. The current forecast has Kenneth degenerating into a remnant low by this weekend. A turn to the NW is expected Thu. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 10N98W to 07N117W. It resumes from 11N127W to 11N139W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 10N E of 112W and from 10N to 15N between 132W and 139W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California supporting moderate NW winds and seas of 5-7 ft. In the Gulf of California, gentle winds prevail. However, as a surface trough has deepened this afternoon, moderate S winds have developed over portions of the far northern Gulf. Seas in the Gulf of California are 1-3 ft, except 3-4 ft near the entrance to the Gulf. Moderate winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec have diminished. Elsewhere over the Mexico offshore waters, gentle winds with seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail. For the forecast, the surface ridge will remain in control of the weather pattern across the region into the weekend. Moderate NW to N winds will prevail over the waters west of Baja California, with seas of 5-7 ft. Fresh winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will occur Thu night through Fri. Fresh to locally strong SW winds may develop in the northern Gulf of California into through Thu. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. South of the monsoon trough, gentle to locally moderate winds prevail. Seas are 3 to 5 ft. For the forecast, moderate to fresh gap winds will prevail in the Gulf of Papagayo through Fri. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will prevail. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Kenneth. A 1008 mb low pressure center is noted near 13N137W, in the vicinity of the monsoon trough. Convection near this low is primarily associated with the trough and is described in the Monsoon Trough section above. Strong NE winds have developed N and W of the center, from 13N to 15N W of 137W. Seas in the area are 8 to 10 ft. This low may strengthen some as it moves W into the Central Pacific basin late this week into the weekend. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh winds and seas of 6-8 ft are impacting the waters north of the monsoon trough to 20N and west of Tropical Storm Kenneth. Seas of 8-9 ft are found N of 28N between 125W and 132W. Mainly moderate southerly winds are south of 04N along with seas of 5 to 7 ft in long period SE swell. Gentle anticyclonic winds and 4-5 ft seas are north of 23N between 120W and 135W under a weak pressure pattern. For the remainder of the area, winds are moderate or weaker with seas of 4-7 ft. For the forecast aside from Tropical Storm Kenneth, high pressure will prevail across the northern waters, particularly north of 20N and west of 110W. Under the influence of this system, gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow is expected with seas in the 4-7 ft range. NW swell with seas of 8 ft or greater will gradually decay by Thu. South of 05N, moderate southerly winds will prevail, with moderate southerly swell persisting through the weekend. $$ KONARIK