890 AXPZ20 KNHC 200249 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Sep 20 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Tropical Storm Kenneth is centered near 14.6N 121.6W at 20/0300 UTC, moving west at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Maximum seas are around 12 ft. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 12N to 20N between 120W and 127W. Gradually strengthening is forecast for the next 36 hours, before colder water and an unfavorable environment may lead to weakening late this week. The current forecast has Kenneth degenerating into a remnant low by day 3, with the remnant low forecast to dissipate by day 5. The system is forecast to move on a general NW track through the end of the week. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Thirteen-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 07N102W to 07N112W. It resumes from 11N128W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 10N E of 106W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 11N between 132W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California supporting moderate to to locally fresh NW winds and seas of 5-7 ft. In the Gulf of California, light to gentle winds prevail. Seas are 1-3 ft, except 3-4 ft near the entrance to the Gulf. Elsewhere over the Mexico offshore waters, light to gentle winds with seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail. For the forecast, the surface ridge will remain in control of the weather pattern across the region over the next several days. Moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds will prevail over the waters west of Baja California tonight before diminishing slightly, with seas of 5-7 ft. Fresh winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will likely return Thu night into Fri. Fresh to locally strong SW winds may develop in the northern Gulf of California Wed night through Thu. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh gap winds are noted over and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo along with seas of 4-5 ft. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. South of the monsoon trough, gentle to moderate winds prevail. Outside of the Gulf of Papagayo, seas are 3-5 ft. For the forecast, gentle to moderate southerly winds over the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands will prevail through Wed before diminishing. Moderate to fresh gap winds will prevail in the Gulf of Papagayo through Fri. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will prevail. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Kenneth. Moderate to fresh winds and seas of 6-8 ft are impacting the waters north of the monsoon trough to 22N and west of Tropical Storm Kenneth. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are south of 04N along with seas of 5 to 7 ft in long period SE swell. Mainly gentle anticyclonic winds and 4-5 ft seas are north of 25N and west of 120W under a weak pressure pattern. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas of 4-7 ft. For the forecast aside from Tropical Storm Kenneth, high pressure will prevail across the northern waters, particularly north of 20N and west of 110W. Under the influence of this system, gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow is expected with seas in the 4-7 ft range. NW swell of around 8 ft will move just south of 30N between 120W and 135W tonight, then gradually decay by Thu. South of 05N, moderate southerly winds will prevail, with moderate southerly swell persisting through the weekend. $$ AL