014 
AXPZ20 KNHC 191621
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Sep 19 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A tropical depression has formed from the low pressure associated
with a tropical wave along 118W. Tropical Depression Thirteen-E
is centered near 15.0N 119.0W at 19/1500 UTC, moving west-
northwest at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is sheared to the 
west of the low level center, from 12N to 18N between 118W and 
123W. Maximum seas are around 10 ft. Strengthening is likely and 
the depression may become a tropical storm tonight. This system 
is forecast to move slowly west- northwestward for the next day 
or so and then turn northward by late Wednesday over the western 
portion of the basin. 

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Thirteen-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 09N96W to 15N117W to 
10N137W. The ITCZ extends from 10N137W to 10N140W. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 10N E of
106W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 12N 
between 133W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Tropical Depression Thirteen-E has formed W of Clarion Island and
will continue moving W away from the islands this week. A 
surface ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja 
California supporting moderate to fresh NW winds and seas of 5-7 
ft. In the Gulf of California, light to gentle winds prevail. 
Seas are 1-3 ft, except 3-4 ft near the entrance to the Gulf. 
Fresh N-NE winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, along with seas
of 5-7 ft. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 4-6 ft in SE to S 
swell prevail elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will remain in control of 
the weather pattern across the region over the next several days.
Moderate to fresh NW to N winds will prevail over the waters 
west of Baja California today before diminishing slightly, with 
seas of 5-7 ft. Fresh winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will 
diminish today, then may return Thu night into Fri. Fresh to 
locally strong SW winds may develop in the northern Gulf of 
California Wed night through Thu. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, 
COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh gap winds are noted over and downstream of the
Gulf of Papagayo along with seas of 5-6 ft. Light to gentle 
winds prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. South of 
the monsoon trough, gentle to moderate winds prevail. Outside of
the Gulf of Papagayo, seas are 3-5 ft.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate southerly winds over the 
waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands will prevail 
through mid week before diminishing. Moderate to fresh gap winds 
will prevail in the Gulf of Papagayo the next few days. 
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will prevail. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details newly
formed Tropical Depression Thirteen-E.

Moderate to locally fresh winds and seas of 6-8 ft are impacting
the waters from north of the monsoon trough/ITCZ to 22N and west 
of 115W. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are south of 04N 
along with seas of 5-8 ft in long period SE swell. Light to 
gentle anticyclonic winds and 4-5 ft seas are north of 25N and 
west of 120W under a weak pressure pattern. Elsewhere, winds are 
moderate or weaker with seas of 4-7 ft. 

For the forecast aside from Tropical Depression Thirteen-E, high
pressure will prevail across the northern waters, particularly 
north of 20N and west of 110W. Under the influence of this 
system, gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow is expected with 
seas in the 4-7 ft range. NW swell of around 8 ft will move just 
south of 30N between 120W and 135W by mid-week before decaying. 
South of 05N, moderate southerly winds will prevail, with 
moderate southerly swell persisting through the weekend.

$$
KONARIK