000 AXPZ20 KNHC 161511 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Sep 16 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... T.D. Twelve-E: Tropical Depression Twelve-E is centered near 14.5N 138.6W at 16/1500 UTC, moving west at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 10N to 17N between 134W and 140W. Seas to 12 ft are noted within 30 nm N of the center. Weakening is expected, and the depression is expected to become a remnant low in a day or so. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Twelve-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave its axis along 105W from 03N-16N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-18N between 103W-114W. Environmental conditions are forecast to become conducive for gradual development of this system by early next week while the system moves west- northwestward over the central and western portions of the east Pacific. There is a low probability of tropical cyclone development with this system over the next 7 days. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 11N130W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 14N and E of 130W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California supporting moderate to fresh NW winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft. In the Gulf of California, light to gentle winds prevail. Seas are 1-3 ft, except 3-5 ft near to the entrance of the Gulf. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 5-6 ft in S to SW swell, prevail elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters. For the forecast, the surface ridge will remain in control of the weather pattern across the region over the next several days. Moderate to fresh NW to N winds will prevail over the waters west of Baja California through early next week, with seas of 6 to 7 ft. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Long period S to SW swell is affecting the waters offshore Central America and northern South America. N of the monsoon trough, winds are light to gentle. South of the monsoon trough, gentle to locally moderate winds prevail. Seas are 5-7 ft. For the forecast, gentle to occasionally moderate southerly winds over the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands will prevail through early next week. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will prevail. Long-period southerly swell will subside across the offshore waters of Central America through the weekend. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please read the Special Features section above for details on T.D. Twelve-E. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are south of 05N. Seas are 5-8 ft in long period SE swell south of 05N and east of 120W. Elsewhere, aside from T.D. Twelve-E, winds are moderate or weaker with seas of 4-7 ft. For the forecast, T.D. Twelve-E will move to 14.2N 139.9W this evening, become a remnant low and move to 13.8N 141.5W Sun morning, 13.3N 143.5W Sun evening, and dissipate Mon morning. Elsewhere, high pressure will prevail across the northern waters, particularly N of 15N and W of 110W. Under the influence of this system, gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow is expected with seas in the 4-7 ft range. South of 05N, moderate southerly winds will prevail, with moderate SE to S swell persisting through the weekend. $$ ERA