000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151526
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Sep 15 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Invest EP94: A broad area of low pressure is analyzed near
15N135W, 1007 mb. The low continues to produce showers and 
thunderstorms from 11N to 19N between 131W and 135W. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for development of this system, and 
a short-lived tropical depression is likely to form during the 
next day or so while it moves generally west- northwestward at 
about 10 kt over the western portion of the eastern Pacific 
basin. Environmental conditions are expected to become 
unfavorable over the weekend, ending the system's chances for 
additional development. This system has a high chance for 
tropical cyclone development within the next 48 hours.

Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 15N135W to 11N140W. 
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from
05N to 17N and E of 112W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja 
California producing moderate to fresh NW winds and seas of 5 to
6 ft. In the Gulf of California, light to gentle winds prevail. 
Seas are 1-3 ft, except 3-4 ft near to the entrance of the Gulf. 
Light to gentle winds, and seas of 5-6 ft in S to SW swell, 
prevail elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will remain in control of 
the weather pattern across the region over the next several days.
Moderate to fresh NW to N winds will prevail over the waters 
west of Baja California through early next week, with seas of 6 
to 7 ft.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, 
COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Long period S to SW swell is affecting the waters offshore
Central America and northern South America. N of 04N, winds are 
light to gentle. South of 04N, moderate southerly winds 
prevail. Seas are 5-7 ft. 

For the forecast, moderate southerly winds over the waters between 
Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands will diminish today. Seas of 7
ft in long period S swell over these waters will continue 
subsiding today. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will prevail 
through the end of the week. Long-period southerly swell will 
subside across the offshore waters of Central America through the
weekend.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please read the Special Features section above for details on
Invest EP94.

Gentle to moderate southerly winds are south of 05N. Seas are 
5-7 ft in long period SE swell south of 05N and east of 100W. 
Elsewhere excluding the area near EP94, winds are moderate or 
weaker with seas of 4-6 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the northern
waters, particularly N of 15N and W of 110W. Under the influence
of this system, gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow is expected
with seas in the 4-6 ft range. South of 05N, moderate southerly 
winds will prevail, with moderate SE to S swell persisting 
through Sat.

$$
ERA