059 
AXPZ20 KNHC 150236
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Sep 15 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Invest EP94: Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad 
area of low pressure located well to the west-southwest of the 
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula are becoming better
organized. Winds are reaching near gale force in the E 
semicircle of the low. Environmental conditions appear conducive 
for further development of this system, and a tropical depression
is likely to form during the next day or so while it moves west-
northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the western 
portion of the eastern Pacific basin. This system has a high 
chance for tropical development within the next 48 hours.

Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 10N100W to 13N128W to
11N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
noted within 300 nm S of the monsoon trough E of 110W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 18N
between 130W and 140W.  

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja 
California producing moderate to locally fresh NW winds and seas
to 6 ft. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate winds 
prevail. Seas are 1-3 ft, except 3-4 ft near to the entrance of 
the Gulf. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 5-6 ft in S to SW 
swell, prevail elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will remain in control of 
the weather pattern across the region over the next several days.
Moderate to fresh NW to N winds will prevail over the waters 
west of Baja California through early next week, with seas of 6 
to 7 ft.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, 
COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Long period S to SW swell is affecting the waters offshore
Central America and northern South America. N of 04N, winds are 
light to gentle. South of 04N, moderate to locally fresh 
southerly winds prevail. Seas are 8-9 ft in between Ecuador and 
the Galapagos Islands and 5-7 ft elsewhere. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh southerly winds will prevail
over the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands 
tonight. Seas of 8 to 9 ft in long period S swell over these 
waters will gradually subsiding on Fri. Elsewhere, light to 
gentle winds will prevail through the end of the week. Long- 
period southerly swell will propagate across the offshore waters 
of Central America through Fri. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please read the Special Features section above for details on
Invest EP94.

Gentle to moderate southerly winds are south of 05N. Seas are 
6-8 ft in long period SE swell south of 05N and east of 100W. 
Elsewhere excluding the area near EP94, winds are moderate or 
weaker with seas of 4-6 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure will build across most of the 
northern forecast region, particularly N of 15N and W of 110W. 
Under the influence of this system, gentle to moderate 
anticyclonic flow is expected with seas in the 4-6 ft range. South
of 05N, moderate southerly winds will prevail, with moderate SE 
to S swell persisting through Sat.

$$
AL