000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142140
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Sep 14 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Invest EP94: A 1008 mb broad area of low pressure is centered 
near 12.5N133W, producing scattered moderate convection from 05N 
to 18N between 127W and 140W. The disturbance is producing fresh
to strong winds currently, and seas in the 8 to 10 ft range. 
Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development
of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form 
during the next day or so while it moves west- northwestward to 
northwestward at 10 to 15 kt over the western portion of the 
eastern Pacific basin. This system has a high chance for tropical
development within the next 48 hours.

Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 14N124W. The ITCZ 
continues from 14N124W to 15N130W, then continues west of Invest
EP94 from 11N135W to beyond 07N140W. Aside from the convection 
mentioned above in the Special Features section above, scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 03N to 14N and E of 110W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja 
California producing moderate to fresh NW to NNW winds and seas 
to 6 ft. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate winds 
prevail. Seas are 1-3 ft, except 3-5 ft near to the entrance of 
the Gulf. Moderate N winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with 
seas to 6 ft. Gentle W to NW winds and seas of 5-6 ft in S to SW 
swell prevail elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters. 

For the forecast, the ridge will remain in control of the 
weather pattern across the region over the next several days. 
Moderate to fresh NW to N winds are forecast over the waters west
of Baja California through early next week, with seas of 6 to 7 
ft.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, 
COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Long period S to SW swell is affecting the waters offshore
Central America and northern South America. N of 05N, winds are 
light to gentle. South of 05N, moderate to fresh southerly 
winds prevail. Seas are 8-9 ft in between Ecuador and the 
Galapagos Islands, 6-7 ft elsewhere. Scattered moderate 
convection is occurring within 120 nm of the coast of Nicaragua, 
El Salvador, Guatemala, southern Costa Rica and Colombia

For the forecast, moderate to fresh southerly winds will prevail 
over the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through 
tonight. Seas of 8 to 9 ft in long period S swell will continue 
over these waters through tonight before gradually subsiding on Fri.
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will prevail through the end of
the week. Long-period southerly swell will continue to propagate
across the offshore waters of Central America through Fri. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please read the Special Features section above for details on
Invest EP94.

Moderate to fresh SE to S winds are south of 05N. Seas are 7-9 
ft in long period SE swell south of 05N and east of 100W. 
Elsewhere excluding the area near EP94, winds are moderate or 
weaker with seas of 4-6 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure will continue to build across 
most of the northern forecast region, particularly N of 15N and 
W of 110W. Under the influence of this system, gentle to moderate
anticyclonic flow is expected with seas in the 4-6 ft range. 
Over the southern portion of the area south of 05N, moderate 
southerly winds will prevail, with moderate SE to S swell 
persisting through Sat.

$$
ERA