000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140852
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Sep 14 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western East Pacific (EP94): A tropical wave is along 131/132W, 
moving W at 10 kt. A 1008 mb broad area of low pressure is along
the wave near 10.5N, producing scattered moderate isolated 
strong convection from 07N to 14N between 128W and 136.5W. 
Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this
system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the 
next day or two while it moves west-northwestward to 
northwestward at 10 to 15 kt. There is a high chance of tropical
cyclone formation within the next 48 hours. Currently, the 
disturbance is producing fresh to locally strong winds and seas 
in the 8 to 9 ft range. By tonight or early Fri, winds in the 
northern semicircle are forecast to increase to strong to near-
gale force, with seas increasing to 10 to 12 ft Fri. Refer to the
latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for 
more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from eastern Panama near 09N79W to
09N92W to 11N111W to 11N123W. The ITCZ continues from 11N123W to
11N128W, then continues west of EP94 from 09N135W to 08N140W. 
Aside from the convection mentioned above in the Special Features
section, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted 
from 01N to 09N between 77W and 86W, and from 04N to 13N between
93W and 109W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 08N to
14N between 121W and 128W. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is also occurring within 120 nm of the coast of
Nicaragua, El Salvador, Guatemala and over the Gulf of
Tehuantepec.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California
producing moderate to locally fresh NW to NNW winds and seas of 
5-7 ft, as noted on a recent altimeter pass. In the Gulf of 
California, gentle to locally moderate winds prevail. Seas are 
1-3 ft, except 3-5 ft near to the entrance of the Gulf. Moderate 
N winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas of 6-7 ft. 
Gentle W to NW winds and seas of 5-7 ft in S to SW swell prevail
elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters. Scattered moderate
to strong convection is noted on satellite imagery over the Gulf
of Tehuantepec.

For the forecast, a ridge will remain in control of the weather
pattern across the region over the next several days. Moderate to
fresh NW to N winds are forecast over the waters west of Baja 
California through early next week, with seas of 6 to 7 ft.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, 
COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Long period S to SW swell is affecting the waters offshore
Central America and northern South America. N of 04N, winds are 
light to gentle, except for gentle to moderate E winds in the 
Papagayo region, and moderate northerly winds in the Gulf of 
Panama, as seen on the latest ASCAT satellite pass. South of 
04N, ASCAT data shows mainly moderate southerly winds. Seas are 
7-9 ft in between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, 6-8 ft 
offshore Colombia and Panama, and 5-7 ft elsewhere. Scattered 
moderate to strong convection is occurring within 120 nm of the 
coast of Nicaragua, El Salvador, Guatemala, southern Costa Rica 
and Colombia

For the forecast, moderate to fresh southerly winds will prevail 
over the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through
today before diminishing tonight. Seas of 8 to 9 ft in long 
period S swell will continue over these waters through tonight 
before gradually subsiding Fri and Fri night. Elsewhere, light to
gentle winds will prevail through Fri night. Long- period 
southerly swell will continue to propagate across the offshore 
waters of Central America through this morning before gradually 
subsiding this afternoon through tonight. Scattered thunderstorms
are expected offshore Colombia and Panama through tonight.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please read the Special Features section above for details on
EP94, which has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation
within 48 hours.

Moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds are south of 06N between
95W and 105W. Seas are 7-9 ft in long period S swell south of 05N
and east of 115W. An area of 8 ft seas prevails west of 138W 
from 22N to 26N. Elsewhere excluding the area near EP94, winds 
are moderate or weaker with seas of 5-7 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure will build across most of the 
northern forecast region, particularly N of 20N and W of 110W. 
Under the influence of this system, mainly gentle to moderate 
anticyclonic flow is expected with seas generally in the 4-6 ft 
range. Over the southern portion of the area south of 05N, winds 
will be moderate southerly, with moderate SE to S swell 
persisting through Sat.

$$
Hagen