000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120857
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Sep 12 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0840 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 124W from 04N to 15N, moving 
westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is noted from 05N to 15N between 116W and 130W. 
Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual 
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form 
during the latter part of this week or this weekend while it 
moves generally west-northwestward. There is a low chance of
tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 10N97W. The ITCZ 
continues from 10N97W to 07N123W, then continues W of the 
tropical wave from 06N125W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 01N to 10N between 77W and 85W, and 
from 05N to 16N between 85W and 103W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is seen from 04N to 08N between 110W and 116W
and from 03N to 06N between 130W and 136W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge is building across the offshore forecast waters of Baja
California, bringing moderate NW to N winds offshore Baja 
California Norte and gentle NW winds offshore Baja California 
Sur. Seas are 5-7 ft off Baja California Norte and 4-6 ft off 
Baja California Sur. In the Gulf of California, gentle to 
moderate S winds prevail along with 1-3 ft seas. In the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec, fresh N gap winds are occurring along with seas to 
6-7 ft. Gentle and variable winds prevail elsewhere with 4-6 ft 
seas in long-period S to SW swell.

For the forecast, fresh N gap winds will prevail in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec through Wed morning. Mainly gentle to moderate NW to
N winds are forecast over the waters west of Baja California 
through today, increasing to moderate to fresh from tonight 
through the end of the week. Seas will build to 7 ft with these 
winds. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, 
COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Long period S to SW swell is affecting the waters offshore
Central America and northern South America. N of 04N, winds are 
light to gentle and variable. South of 04N, gentle to moderate 
southerly winds prevail. Seas are 7-9 ft in between Ecuador and
the Galapagos Islands. Seas are 4-6 ft offshore Central America
and Colombia, except up to 7 ft off southern Colombia, in long 
period S to SW swell.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate south winds will continue
over the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through
today, increasing to moderate to fresh tonight through Thu, with
seas of 7-9 ft in long period S to SW swell through Thu night. 
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will prevail through Fri night, 
except for moderate NE to E winds in the Gulf of Papagayo pulsing
through tonight. Long-period southerly swell, with seas of 6-7 
ft, will propagate across the Central America and Colombia 
offshore forecast waters through Thu before subsiding Fri.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Recent scatterometer data indicates that the remnant low of Jova
has dissipated into an open trough. The trough extends from
21N129.5W to 26N130W. Strong NE winds are present from 24.5N to
27N between 129W and 132.5W, with fresh winds extending northward
to 30N, between 127W and 140W. Seas are 8 to 9 ft in the strong
wind area and 7 to 8 ft in the fresh wind area. Fresh NNE winds
and seas 7 to 8 ft are occurring to the west of the
aforementioned tropical wave along 124W. Fresh SE to S winds are
south of 05.5N between 105W and 125W, where seas are 8-10 ft in
long period S swell. S swell of 8-10 ft is occurring east of 125W
and south of 10N. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker, with 
seas of 5-7 ft.

For the forecast, the surface trough near 23N130W will drift 
west-southwestward through tonight. An area of fresh to strong 
winds between the trough and a high pressure to the N is 
forecast to persist through early Wed morning. Elsewhere north of
the ITCZ and E of 125W, mainly gentle to moderate NE to E winds 
will prevail. To the south of 09N and east of 125W, seas of 8 to 
10 ft in long-period southerly swell will continue through
tonight before gradually subsiding Wed.

See the tropical waves section above for details on a tropical
wave that has potential to develop into a tropical cyclone in a
few days. This area of disturbed weather should be near 13N132W
by early Thu moving west-northwestward. Strong winds and seas to
9 ft could develop with this system by Wed night.

$$
Hagen