000
AXPZ20 KNHC 112102
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Sep 11 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 121W from 04N to 14N, moving 
westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is mainly ahead of the wave axis from 04N to 10N 
between 120W and 130W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from a 1009 mb low pressure located
over northern Colombia near 10N75W to 07N90W to 08N99W. The ITCZ
continues from 08N99W to 11N115W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate 
to isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 11N between 
80W and 105W, from 10N to 15N between 98W and 106W, and from 04N
to 10N between 120W and 130W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge is building across the offshore forecast waters of Baja
California in the wake of the remnant low of Jova bringing gentle
to moderate NW to N winds over the waters to the west of Baja 
California Norte, and light and variable winds offshore Baja 
California Sur. Fresh to strong northerly winds are blowing 
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec and downwind to about 15N. In the
Gulf of California, gentle to moderate S winds are noted. Light
and variable winds are elsewehre across the Mexican offshore 
waters. Seas are generally 4-6 ft west of Baja California, 5-6 ft
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, 1-3 ft in the Gulf of California and
4-5 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong N gap winds will prevail in 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec through tonight. Mainly gentle to moderate
NW to N winds are forecast over the waters west of Baja California
most of the forecast period, with the exception of moderate to 
fresh winds, mainly at night, between Cabo San Lazaro and Punta 
Eugenia. Seas are expected to build to 6 or 7 ft with these winds.
In the Gulf of California, expect gentle to moderate southerly 
winds likely through Thu. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, 
COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate NE winds prevail in the Papagayo region and downwind to
about 88W based on recent scatterometer pass. Elsewhere, light
and variable winds are seen N of 05N, with gentle to moderate
southerly winds S of 05N, including the waters between Ecuador 
and the Galapagos Islands where seas are in the 5-7 ft range. 
Light easterly winds are noted offshore Colombia with seas of 1-3
ft. Elsewhere, seas are 4-5 ft, except 1-3 ft in the Gulf of 
Panama.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate south winds will continue
over the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands with
seas of 6-8 ft in long period S to SW swell likely through Thu or
Thu night. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will prevail through
Fri night, except for moderate NE to E winds in the Gulf of 
Papagayo pulsing through Tue night. Long-period southerly swell,
with seas of 5-7 ft, will continue to propagate across the 
offshore forecast waters through Thu before subsiding Fri.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The remnant low of Jova is still producing fresh to strong winds
in the northern semicircle, with seas of 8-10 ft based on a 
recent altimeter pass. The low located near 24.5N129W, with a 
central pressure of 1012 mb, is drifting to the W. Moderate to 
locally fresh NE winds and seas near 8 ft are observed ahead of 
the aforementioned tropical wave with axis along 121W. An area of
moderate to fresh SE to S winds is from the Equator to about 05N
between 110W and 120W. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker, 
with seas of 5-7 ft.

For the forecast, the remnant low of Jova will drift westward
through tonight, then move SW while open up into a trough by late
Tue or Tue night. An area of fresh to strong winds between the
remnants of Jova and a high pressure to the N will is forecast to
persist through early Wed morning. Elsewhere north of the ITCZ, 
mainly gentle to moderate NE to E winds will prevail. To the 
south of 05N and east of 120W, long-period southerly swell will 
build seas to 8 to 9 ft today through Tue, subsiding by Tue 
night into Wed morning.

$$
GR