000
AXPZ20 KNHC 111555
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Sep 11 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 120W from 04N to 14N, moving 
westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is mainly ahead of the wave axis from 04N to 10N 
between 120W and 128W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N83W to 07N90W to 07N99W. The 
ITCZ continues from 07N99W to 05N119W, then continues from 
04N122W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is noted from 03N to 09N between 78W and 100W, from 
10N to 15N between 98W and 105W, and from 04N to 10N between 
120W and 128W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge is building across the offshore forecast waters of Baja
California in the wake of the remnant low of Jova. Gentle to
moderate NW to N winds are ongoing over the waters to the west 
of Baja California Norte. Offshore Baja California Sur, winds are
mainly light to gentle from the N. Fresh to strong northerly 
winds are blowing across the Gulf of Tehuantepec and downwind to 
about 14N. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate S winds 
are noted. Mainly gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. 
Seas are 5-6 ft west of Baja California, 6-7 ft in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec, 1-3 ft in the Gulf of California and 4-5 ft 
elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong N gap winds will prevail in 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec through tonight. Mainly gentle to moderate
NW to N winds will prevail over the waters west of Baja California
most of the forecast period. In the Gulf of California, expect
gentle to moderate southerly winds through Wed. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, 
COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate south winds are ongoing across the Ecuador and
Galapagos Islands offshore waters along with seas of 5 to 8 ft 
in SW swell. Moderate E winds continue in the Papagayo region, 
with seas near 5 ft. Light to gentle variable winds and slight 
seas are ongoing elsewhere. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate south winds will continue
over the waters west of Ecuador through Tue, increasing to
moderate to fresh for Tue night through Thu. Elsewhere, light to
gentle variable winds will prevail through Fri night, except for
moderate NE to E winds in the Gulf of Papagayo pulsing through 
Tue night. Long-period southerly swell will increase through 
tonight over the waters in between Ecuador and the Galapagos 
Islands, with the swell lasting through Thu before subsiding Fri.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The remnant low of Jova is located near 24.5N128.5W with a central
pressure of 1008 mb and maximum sustained winds of 25 kt in the 
northern semicircle. The low is moving to the W at 5 kt. The peak
seas are 11 ft. Winds over 20 kt and seas over 9 ft in association
with the low are affecting the area N of 24N between 126W and 136W

Winds are moderate to fresh near a tropical wave along 120W. 
Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker, with seas of 5-7 ft.

For the forecast, the remnant low of Jova will drift westward
through tonight, then move SW while open up into a trough by late
Tue or Tue night. An area of fresh to strong winds between the
remnants of Jova and a high pressure to the N will likely persist
through Wed morning. Elsewhere north of the ITCZ, mainly gentle
to moderate NE to E winds will prevail. To the south of 05N and 
east of 120W, long-period southerly swell will build seas to 8 
to 9 ft today through Tue, subsiding by Tue night.

$$
GR