000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110842
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Sep 11 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0820 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 119W from 02N to 14N, moving 
westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are 
within 120 nm of the wave axis from 06N to 13N.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 07.5N102.5W. The ITCZ 
continues from 07.5N102.5W to 05.5N116W, then continues from 
04N120W to 03.5N129W. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
from 01.5N to 09N between 77W and 87W, and from 05N to 16N 
between 88W and 103W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate to fresh NW to NNW winds are ongoing over the waters to
the west of Baja California Norte. Offshore Baja California Sur,
winds are mainly gentle from the NW, as shown by a recent ASCAT 
satellite data pass. The ASCAT data also confirmed fresh to
strong N winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. In the Gulf of
California, gentle to moderate S winds are occurring. Mainly
gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are 5-6 ft west
of Baja California, 6-7 ft in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, 1-3 ft in
the Gulf of California and 4-5 ft elsewhere.

The Popocatepetl volcano is currently in a state of unrest, and 
the volcano recently emitted ash that traveled westward toward 
the Pacific Ocean. It is possible that this plume is reaching the
Pacific Ocean off the coast of western Guerrero and eastern
Michoacan. Mariners in that area should exercise caution. If 
mariners encounter volcanic ash or floating volcanic debris, you 
are encouraged to report the observation to the National Weather 
Service by calling 305-229-4424.

For the forecast, fresh to strong N gap winds will prevail in 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec through tonight. Moderate to fresh NW to
N winds will develop over the waters west of Baja California Tue
night and continue through at least Fri night.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, 
COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate south winds are ongoing across the Ecuador and
Galapagos Islands offshore waters along with seas of 5 to 8 ft 
in south swell. Moderate E winds continue in the Papagayo 
region, with seas near 5 ft. Light to gentle variable winds and 
slight seas are ongoing elsewhere. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate south winds will continue
over the waters west of Ecuador through Tue, increasing to
moderate to fresh for Tue night through Thu. Elsewhere, light to
gentle variable winds will prevail through Fri night, except for
moderate NE to E winds in the Gulf of Papagayo pulsing through 
Tue night. Long-period southerly swell will increase through 
tonight over the waters in between Ecuador and the Galapagos 
Islands, with the swell lasting through Thu before subsiding Fri.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The remnant low of Jova is located near 25N128W with a central
pressure of 1006 mb and maximum sustained winds of 25 kt in the 
northern semicircle. The low is moving to the W at 5 kt. The 
peak seas are 11 ft. Winds over 20 kt and seas over 9 ft in 
association with the low are affecting the area from 25N to 28N 
between 127W and 131W.

Winds are moderate to fresh near a tropical wave along 118W.
South of 04N between 95W and 120W, moderate to fresh SE to SSE
winds prevail along with seas of 8 to 9 ft in S swell. Elsewhere,
winds are moderate or weaker, with seas of 5-7 ft.

For the forecast, the remnant low of Jova will move to near
24.5N130W late this afternoon, 23N133W Tue afternoon, and 
dissipate by Wed afternoon. Over the northern waters to the east
of Jova, moderate to fresh N to NE winds will remain in place 
through early Wed before diminishing, as surface ridging builds 
in the wake of Jova. Elsewhere north of the ITCZ, mainly gentle 
to moderate NE to E winds will prevail. To the south of 08N and 
east of 120W, long-period southerly swell will build seas to 8 to
10 ft today through Tue, subsiding Tue night.

$$
Hagen