000 AXPZ20 KNHC 100900 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Sep 10 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Jova is centered near 24.0N 126.9W at 10/0900 UTC, moving northwest at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are about 20 ft within the area of strongest winds. Scattered moderate convection is from 21N to 28N between 124W and 128W. A gradual turn toward the west and west- southwest is expected over the next couple of days. Further weakening is forecast, and Jova is expected to become a remnant low by tonight. Swells generated by Jova are affecting the western coast of Mexico and are occurring along portions of the coast of California. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions through the weekend. Please consult products from your local weather office for details. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Jova NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 113W from 02N to 15N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 07N99W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 05N111W, then resumes from 11N124W to 09N140W. Scattered showers are noted within 150 nm on either side of the boundaries. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section above for details on T.S. Jova. Moderate to fresh N to NW winds are ongoing across the Baja California offshore waters south of Punta Eugenia, the entrance of the Gulf of California as well as the Jalisco offshore waters. Seas along the Baja California offshores are in the range of 5 to 7 ft in southerly swell due to the proximity of T.S. Jova. Gentle NW winds are along the Gulf of California with seas to 2 ft, except to 5-6 ft in the entrance of the gulf. Light to gentle variable winds and seas to 6 ft in southerly swell are elsewhere across the S and SW Mexican offshore waters. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW winds along the Baja California offshore waters will extend to the waters N of Punta Eugenia will continue through Mon morning as Jova moves farther away over the subtropical E Pacific high seas waters. A low pressure will develop over SW Arizona early on Monday with a surface trough extending into the Gulf of California. The trough will prevail along the gulf through midweek, supporting gentle to moderate SE winds. Fresh to strong north gap winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight through Mon. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate south winds are ongoing across the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore waters along with seas to 5 ft in south swell. Moderate E winds continue in the Papagayo region, with seas to 5 ft. Light to gentle variable winds and seas in the 3 to 5 ft range are ongoing elsewhere. For the forecast, gentle to moderate south winds over the waters west of Ecuador will continue into early next week, becoming fresh by mid-week. Elsewhere, light to gentle variable winds will prevail, except for moderate to fresh near the Gulf of Papagayo pulsing nightly through early next week. Long-period southerly swell will affect the offshore waters late Mon through the week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section above for the latest information on T.S. Jova. Elsewhere, long-period southerly swell producing seas of 5-6 ft is present south of the Equator and east of 120W, along with moderate SE winds. The gradient between high pressure centered north of the area and T.S. Jova is resulting moderate to fresh northeast to east winds N of 20N and west of 130W. Seas with these winds are 4-6 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail along with seas of 4-6 ft in NE swell, except in southeast swell S of 10N. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Jova will move to 24.5N 127.4W this afternoon, weaken to a remnant low near 24.8N 128.1W Mon morning, 24.6N 129.1W Mon afternoon, 24.1N 130.4W Tue morning, 23.2N 132.3W Tue afternoon, and 22.3N 134.5W Wed morning. Jova will dissipate early Thu. Elsewhere, high pressure will build to its north increasing the gradient over the western and north- central sections of the area, with northeast to east moderate to fresh trades prevailing. $$ ERA