692 
AXPZ20 KNHC 100255
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Sep 10 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Jova is centered near 23.7N 126.5W at 10/0300
UTC, moving northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with
gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are about 21 ft within the area of 
strongest winds. Scattered moderate convection is from 21N to 27N
between 124W and 128W. A gradual turn toward the west and west-
southwest is expected over the next couple of days. Weakening is 
forecast, and Jova is expected to become a remnant low by Monday.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Jova
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov 
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 111W from 02N to 15N, moving 
westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave
axis. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 07N109W, then resumes 
near 15N128W to 10N132W. The ITCZ continues from that point to
08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 280 nm on
either side of the boundaries. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

See the Special Features section above for details on T.S. Jova.

Moderate to fresh N to NW winds are ongoing across the Baja
California offshore waters south of Punta Eugenia, the entrance 
of the Gulf of California as well as the Jalisco offshore 
waters. Seas along the Baja California offshores are in the range
of 5 to 7 ft in southerly swell due to the proximity of T.S. 
Jova. Gentle to locally moderate NW winds are along the Gulf of 
California with seas to 2 ft, except to 5 ft in the entrance of 
the gulf. Light to gentle variable winds and seas to 6 ft in 
southerly swell are elsewhere across the S and SW Mexican 
offshore waters.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW winds along the Baja 
California offshore waters will extend to the waters N of Punta
Eugenia tonight and continue through Mon morning as Jova continue
to move farther away over the subtropical E Pacific high seas 
waters. A low pressure will develop over SW Arizona early on 
Monday with a surface trough extending into the Gulf of 
California. The trough will prevail along the gulf through
midweek, supporting gentle to moderate SE winds. Fresh to strong
north gap winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sun night 
through Mon.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, 
COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate south winds are ongoing across the Ecuador and
Galapagos Islands offshore waters along with seas to 5 ft in 
south swell. Moderate E winds continue in the Papagayo region, 
with seas to 5 ft. Light to gentle variable winds and seas in the
3 to 5 ft range are ongoing elsewhere. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate south winds over the waters
west of Ecuador will continue into early next week, becoming 
fresh by mid-week. Elsewhere, light to gentle variable winds 
will prevail, except for moderate to fresh near the Gulf of 
Papagayo pulsing nightly through early next week. Long-period 
southerly swell will affect the offshore waters late Mon through
the period.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

See the Special Features section above for the latest information
on T.S. Jova. 

Elsewhere, long-period southerly swell producing seas of 5-6 ft 
is present south of the Equator and east of 120W, along with 
moderate SE winds. The gradient between high pressure centered 
north of the area and T.S. Jova is resulting moderate to fresh 
northeast to east winds N of 20N and west of 130W. Seas with 
these winds are 4-6 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail
along with seas of 4-6 ft in NE swell, except in southeast swell
S of 10N.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Jova will move to 24.3N 127.2W 
Sun morning, weaken to a tropical depression near 24.8N 128.1W 
Sun evening, become a remnant low and move to 24.9N 129.0W Mon 
morning, 24.6N 130.0W Mon evening, 23.9N 131.7W Tue morning, and 
23.3N 133.6W Tue evening. Jova will dissipate late Wed. Elsewhere,
high pressure will build to its north increasing the gradient 
over the western and north-central sections of the area, with 
northeast to east moderate to fresh trades prevailing.

$$
ERA