000
AXPZ20 KNHC 092205
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Sep 9 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2150 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Jova is centered near 22.9N 126.1W at 09/2100
UTC, moving northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with
gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are about 20 ft within the area of 
strongest winds. Scattered moderate convection is from 21N to 
25N between 124W and 128W. A NW motion at a slightly slower 
forward speed is expected for the next day or so. Jova is 
forecast to slow down further and turn toward the WSW by late 
Sunday. Additional weakening is likely, and Jova is expected to 
become a remnant low by late Sunday or early Monday. Swells 
generated by Jova are affecting the western coast of Mexico and 
are occuring along portions of the coast of California. These 
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current 
conditions through the weekend. Please consult products from your
local weather office. 

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Jova
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov 
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 111W from 02N to 15N, moving 
westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 07N to 
13N between 105W and 113W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N85W to 08N100W to 06N109W, 
then resumes near 13N124W to 09N131W to 07N140W. Numerous 
moderate isolated strong convection is N of 02N E of 90W. 
Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 16N between 90W and
105W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

See the Special Features section above for details on T.S. Jova.

Moderate to fresh N to NW winds are ongoing across the Baja
California offshore waters south of Punta Eugenia, the entrance 
of the Gulf of California as well as the Jalisco offshore 
waters. Seas along the Baja California offshores are in the range
of 5 to 7 ft in SE to S swell due to the proximity of T.S. Jova.
Gentle to locally moderate NW winds are along the Gulf of
California with seas to 2 ft, except to 5 ft in the entrance of
the gulf where winds are slightly higher. Light to gentle
variable winds and seas to 6 ft in southerly swell are elsewhere
across the S and SW Mexican offshore waters.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW winds along the Baja 
California offshore waters will extend to the waters N of Punta
Eugenia tonight and continue through Mon morning as Jova continue
to move farther away over the subtropical E Pacific high seas 
waters. A low pressure will develop over SW Arizona early on 
Monday with a surface trough extending into the Gulf of 
California. The trough will prevail along the gulf through Wed, 
thus supporting mainly gentle to moderate SE winds. Otherwise, 
fresh to strong north gap winds will develop in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec Sun night through Mon.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, 
COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate south winds are ongoing across the Ecuador and
Galapagos Islands offshore waters along with seas to 5 ft in 
south swell. Moderate E winds continue in the Papagayo region, 
with seas to 5 ft. Light to gentle variable winds and seas in the
3 to 5 ft range are ongoing elsewhere. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate south winds over the waters
west of Ecuador will continue into early next week, becoming 
fresh by mid-week. Elsewhere, light to gentle variable winds 
will prevail, except for moderate to fresh near the Gulf of 
Papagayo pulsing nightly through early next week. Long-period 
southerly swell will affect the offshore waters late Mon through
the period.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

See the Special Features section above for the latest information
on T.S. Jova. 

Elsewhere, long-period southerly swell producing seas of 5-6 ft 
is present south of the Equator and east of 120W, along with 
moderate SE winds. The gradient between high pressure centered 
north of the area and T.S. Jova is resulting moderate to locally 
fresh northeast to east winds N of 10N and west of 130W. Seas 
with these winds are 4-6 ft. Elsewhere, gentle winds prevail 
along with seas of 4-6 ft in northerly swell, except in southeast
swell S of 10N.

For the forecast, Jova will move to 23.6N 127.0W Sun morning, 
weaken to a tropical depression near 24.3N 127.9W Sun afternoon, 
become a remnant low and move to 24.6N 128.8W Mon morning, 24.4N 
129.6W Mon afternoon, 24.0N 130.9W Tue morning, and 23.1N 133.1W 
Tue afternoon. Jova will dissipate Wed afternoon. Elsewhere, high
pressure will build to its north increasing the gradient over 
the western and north-central sections of the area, with 
northeast to east moderate to fresh trades prevailing. 

$$
Ramos