316 
AXPZ20 KNHC 090306
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Sep 9 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Jova is centered near 21.1N 123.7W at 09/0300 UTC,
moving west-northwest at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 987 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with
gusts to 80 kt. Peak seas are about 29 ft within the area of 
strongest winds, and seas in excess of 12 ft extend out as far as
360 nm from the center in the E semicircle. Latest satellite 
imagery depicts a continuing weakening tropical cyclone as it 
encounters a more stable environment. Numerous moderate to 
isolated strong convection is from 14N to 25N between 116W and 
127W. Swells generated by Jova are affecting the western coast of 
Mexico and are expected to reach portions of the coast of California 
tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and 
rip current conditions through the weekend.  Please consult products 
from your local weather office for more details. Jova is 
forecast to slow down further and turn westward by late Sunday,
then become a remnant low early next week.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Jova
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov 
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 107W from 02N to 16N, moving 
westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted within 180 nm 
west of the wave from 10N to 15N.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 09N107W, then resumes
near 13N124W to 07N130W. The ITCZ continues from that point to
07N140W. Scattered moderate convection prevails S of the monsoon
trough/ITCZ between 84W to 100W, and W of 123W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

See the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane 
Jova.

Elsewhere, light to gentle winds continue to the southeast 
of the influence of Jova and in the Gulf of California. Fresh 
winds in association to Jova are ongoing west of 113W and south 
of 25N. Moderate to fresh north winds are north of 22N and west 
of Baja California. Seas in the area of strong winds are 10-14 
ft, with 8-11 ft seas west of 108W and south of 25N. For the 
remaining waters, seas are 4-7 ft, except 1-3 ft in the Gulf of 
California N of 25N.

For the forecast, aside from areas impacted by Hurricane Jova, 
fresh northwest winds along and just offshore the coast between 
Manzanillo and Cabo Corrientes will expand in coverage and shift
westward through the weekend as Jova pulls farther away from 
these waters. In its wake, high pressure ridging will build 
southward to near 28N. Nocturnal pulses of fresh north gap winds 
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region will continue through early 
next week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, 
COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Seas of 4-6 ft dominate the basin primarily due to long-period 
southerly swell. Gentle to moderate south winds are south of the
monsoon trough, with light and variable winds to the north. The 
only exception is in the Papagayo region, where moderate to fresh
gap winds are pulsing.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate south winds over the waters
west of Ecuador will continue into early next week, becoming 
fresh by mid-week. Elsewhere, light to gentle variable winds 
will prevail, except for moderate to fresh near the Gulf of 
Papagayo pulsing nightly through early next week. Long-period 
southerly swell will continue through the period.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

See the Special Features section above for the latest information
on Hurricane Jova. 

Elsewhere, long-period southerly swell producing seas of 5-7 ft 
is present south of the Equator and east of 120W, along with 
moderate SE winds. The gradient between high pressure centered 
north of the area and Hurricane Jova is resulting moderate to 
fresh northeast to east winds from 10N to 20N and west of 130W. 
Seas with these winds are 4-6 ft. Elsewhere, gentle winds prevail
along with seas of 4-6 ft in north to northeast swell, except 
in southeast swell well outside Hurricane Jova.

For the forecast, Hurricane Jova will weaken to a tropical storm
near 22.0N 125.2W Sat morning, move to 23.3N 126.7W Sat evening,
24.3N 127.6W Sun morning, 24.8N 128.4W Sun evening, weaken to a 
tropical depression near 24.8N 129.3W Mon morning, and become a 
remnant low and move to 24.5N 130.2W Mon evening. Jova will 
change little in intensity as it moves to 23.5N 133.0W 
by late Tue. Elsewhere, high pressure will build to its north 
increasing the gradient over the western and north-central 
sections of the area, with northeast to east fresh trades
prevailing.  

$$
ERA