257 AXPZ20 KNHC 082145 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Sep 8 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Jova is centered near 20.4N 122.4W, or about 710 nm west of the southern tip of Baja California at 08/2100 UTC, moving west-northwest at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Peak seas are about 32 ft within the area of strongest winds, and seas in excess of 12 ft extend out as far as 490 nm from the center in the SE quadrant. Latest satellite imagery depicts a continuing weakening tropical cyclone as it encounters a more stable environment. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is within 60 nm of the center, except 30 nm in the NW quadrant. Similar convection is in an outer band feature that extends from 22N to 22N between 123W-124W and from 22N to 23N between 121W-124W. Scattered moderate convection is an extension of the same band and is within 30 nm of a line from 19N121W to 21N121W. Similar convection marks another outer band within 30 nm of a line from 18N124W to 18N121W to 20N120W. An area of scattered moderate convection is present to the southeast of Jova from 15N to 20N between 116W-119W. Jova is forecast to maintain is present with a gradual decrease in forward speed expected over the next few days. Continued weakening is forecast during the next several days. Swells generated by Jova are expected to reach portions of the coast of California later today. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions through the weekend. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Jova NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 105W from 04N to 18N. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm west of the wave from 10N to 15N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from coast of northwest coast of Colombia to 09N84W to 08N93W to 08N100W to 08N106W It resumes south-southwest of Jova near 12N125W to 08N131W to beyond 07N140W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is within 240 nm south of the trough between 91W-95W. Numerous moderate convection is within 180 nm south of the trough between 125W-130W, and within 120 nm south of the trough between 130W-139W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Jova located about 710 nm west of the southern tip of Baja California. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds continue to the southeast of the influence of Jova and in the Gulf of California. Strong winds in association to Jova are ongoing W of 112W and S of 22N. Moderate to fresh north winds are north of 22N and west of Baja California. Seas in the area of strong winds are 12-18 ft, with 8-11 ft seas west of 108W and south of 25N. For the remaining waters, seas are 4-7 ft, except 1-3 ft in the Gulf of California N of 25N. For the forecast, aside from areas impacted by Hurricane Jova, fresh northwest winds along and just offshore the coast between Manzanillo and Cabo Corrientes will expand in coverage and shift westward through the weekend as Jova pulls farther away from these waters. In its wake, high pressure ridging will build southward to near 28N. Nocturnal pulses of fresh north gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region will continue through early next week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Seas of 4-6 ft dominate the basin primarily due to long-period southerly swell. Gentle to moderate south winds are south of the monsoon trough, with light and variable winds to the north. The only exception is in the Papagayo region, where moderate to fresh gap winds are pulsing. For the forecast, gentle to moderate south winds over the waters west of Ecuador will continue into early next week, becoming primarily fresh winds starting at mid-week. Elsewhere, light to gentle variable winds will prevail, except for moderate to fresh near the Gulf of Papagayo pulsing nightly through early next week. Long-period southerly swell will continue through the period. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section above for the latest information on Hurricane Jova. Elsewhere, long-period southerly swell producing seas of 5-7 ft is present south of the Equator and east of 120W, along with moderate SE winds. The gradient between high pressure centered north of the area and Hurricane Jova is resulting moderate to fresh northeast to east winds from 10N to 20N and west of 130W. Seas with these winds are 4-6 ft. Elsewhere, gentle winds prevail along with seas of 4-6 ft in north to northeast swell, except in southeast swell well outside Hurricane Jova. For the forecast, Hurricane Jova will weaken to a tropical storm as it moves to near 21N124W late tonight with maximum sustained winds 60 kt gusts 75 kt, move to near 23N126W early Sat afternoon with maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt, to near 24N127W late Sat night, to near 25N128W Sun afternoon with maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt and weaken to a tropical depression near 25N129W Mon morning. Jova is forecast become a remnant low near 25N130W by early Mon afternoon. Elsewhere, high pressure will build to its north increasing the gradient over the western and north-central sections of the area, with northeast to east trade at mainly fresh speeds. $$ Aguirre