000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080319
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Sep 8 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Jova is centered near 18.3N 118.6W at 08/0300 UTC, 
moving west-northwest at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central 
pressure is 947 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 115 kt with 
gusts to 140 kt. Peak seas are near 45 ft, extending out as far 
as 420 nm from the center in the NE quadrant. Numerous moderate
to strong convection is noted from 15N-21N between 112W-122W. Jova
is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind 
Scale. Continued weakening is forecast during the next several 
days.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Jova
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov 
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 102W from 02N to 16N, moving 
westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noyed along the
wave's axis.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N84W to 11N101W. It 
resumes to the southwest of Hurricane Jova near 13N120W to  
beyond 09N140W. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is 
within 180 nm south of the trough and E of 91W, and between
116W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

See the Special Features section above for information on
Hurricane Jova that is located about 560 nm WSW of the southern 
tip of Baja California.

Elsewhere, light to gentle winds continue to the southeast 
of the influence of Jova and in the Gulf of California. Strong
winds in association to Jova are ongoing W of 110W and S of 22N.
Moderate to fresh north winds are N of 20N to the W of Baja 
California. Seas in the area of strong winds are 12-20 ft, with 
8-11 ft seas west of 106W and south of 24N. For the remaining 
waters, seas are 4-6 ft, except 1-3 ft in the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, aside from areas impacted by Hurricane Jova, 
expect fresh winds along the Baja California coast tonight as 
the pressure gradient tightens along the peninsula. Fresh 
northwest winds are also expected along and just offshore the 
coast between Manzanillo and Cabo Corrientes on Fri. These winds
will then expand in coverage and shift westward through the 
weekend as Jova pulls farther away from these waters. In its 
wake, high pressure ridging will build southward to near 28N. 
Pulses of fresh north gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region
will commence tonight.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, 
COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Seas of 4-6 ft dominate the basin primarily due to long-period 
southerly swell. Gentle to locally moderate south winds are 
south of the monsoon trough, with light and variable winds to 
the north. The only exception is in the Papagayo region, where
moderate to fresh gap winds are pulsing.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate south winds over the waters
west of Ecuador will continue into early next week. Elsewhere, 
light to gentle variable winds will prevail, except for moderate
to fresh near the Gulf of Papagayo pulsing nightly into Sun. 
Long-period sotherly swell will continue through the period.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

See the Special Features section above for the latest information
on Hurricane Jova. 

Elsewhere, long-period southwest swell producing seas of 5-7 ft 
is present south of the Equator and east of 120W, along with 
moderate SE winds. The gradient between high pressure centered 
north of the area and lower pressure in the vicinity of the 
monsoon trough is producing moderate to fresh northeast to east 
winds from 10N to 20N and west of 120W. Seas with these winds are
5-7 ft. Elsewhere, mainly gentle winds prevail along with seas 
of 4-6 ft in north to northeast swell, except primarily in 
southeast swell south of about 07N and west of about 118W.

For the forecast, Hurricane Jova will move to 19.1N 120.6W Fri 
morning, 20.3N 123.1W Fri evening, 21.6N 125.2W Sat morning, 
weaken to a tropical storm near 23.0N 126.8W Sat evening, 24.0N 
127.9W Sun morning, and 24.6N 128.8W Sun evening. Jova will 
become post-tropical as it moves to 24.8N 130.5W by late Mon.
Large long-period swells generated by Jova are likely to 
increase the sea state well outside from where it tracks. 
Otherwise, high pressure will build to its north increasing the 
gradient over the western and north-central sections of the area,
with northeast to east trade at mainly fresh speeds. 

$$
ERA