000 AXPZ20 KNHC 071604 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Sep 07 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Major Hurricane Jova is centered near 17.1N 115.7W, or about 480 nm southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, at 07/1500 UTC moving west-northwest at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 932 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 135 kt with gusts to 165 kt. Peak seas are near 47 ft, extending out as far as 390 nm from the center in the NE quadrant. Latest satellite imagery shows that cloud tops are warming within Jova's eyewall. Numerous strong convection is noted within 90 nm of the center in the SE and within 60 nm of the center in the NW quadrants. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is elsewhere within 180 nm of the center in the SE quadrant and within 240 nm of the center in the SW quadrant. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is located southeast and south of Jova within 75 nm of a line from 13N113W to 09N119W. Jova is forecast to maintain its present motion for the next few days. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible today. Weakening is forecast to begin later tonight and continue through the weekend. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Jova NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 98W north from 02N to 16N. It is moving westward at about 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm west of the wave from 12N to 14N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia to northern Costa Rica and to 10N85W to 11N95W to 11N104W. It resumes to the southwest of Hurricane Jova at 11N119W to 09N130W and to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm south of the trough between 119W-135W, also within 120 nm north of the trough between 98W-101W and within 60 nm south of the trough 85W-87W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section above for information on Major Hurricane Jova that is located about 480 nm southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds continue to the southeast of the influence of Jova and in the Gulf of California. Strong winds in association with Hurricane Jova are ongoing W of 109W and S of 20N. Moderate to to locally fresh north winds are N of 20N to the W of Baja California. Seas in the area of strong winds are 12-18 ft, with 8-11 ft seas W of 104W and south of 22N. For the remaining waters, seas are 4-6 ft, except 1- 3 ft in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, aside from areas impacted by Major Hurricane Jova, expect fresh winds along the Baja California coast today as the pressure gradient tightens along the peninsula. Fresh northwest winds are also expected along and just offshore the coast between Manzanillo and Cabo Corrientes on Fri and Fri night. These winds will then expand in coverage and shift westward through the weekend as Jova pulls farther away from these waters. In its wake, high pressure ridging will build southward to near 28N. Pulses of fresh north gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region will commence tonight. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Seas of 4-6 ft dominate the basin primarily due to long-period southerly swell. Gentle to locally moderate south winds are south of the monsoon trough, with light and variable winds to the north. The only exception is in the Papagayo region, where moderate to locally fresh gap winds are pulsing. For the forecast, gentle to locally moderate south winds over the waters west of Ecuador will continue into early next week. Elsewhere, light to gentle variable winds will prevail, except locally moderate to fresh near the Gulf of Papagayo pulsing nightly into Sun. Long-period south to southwest swell will continue through the period. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section above for the latest information on Major Hurricane Jova. Jova is expected to impact the waters west of Clarion Island into Fri night, then continue track westward away from the island afterward. Elsewhere, long-period southwest swell producing seas of 5-7 ft is present south of the Equator and east of 120W, along with moderate SE winds. The gradient between high pressure centered north of the area and lower pressure in the vicinity of the monsoon trough is producing moderate to locally fresh northeast to east winds from 10N to 20N and west of 120W. Seas with these winds are 5-7 ft. Elsewhere, mainly gentle winds are present along with seas of 4-6 ft in north to northeast swell, except primarily in southeast swell south of about 07N and west of about 118W. For the forecast, powerful and Major Hurricane Jova will move to near 18.0N 117.7W this evening with maximum sustained winds 125 kt gusts 150 kt, and continue to weaken as moves to near 19.3N 120.4W Fri morning with maximum sustained winds 110 kt gusts 135 kt, to near 20.5N 123.0W Fri evening with maximum sustained winds 90 kt gusts 110 kt, and to near 21.8N 125.2W Sat morning with maximum sustained winds 75 kt gusts 90 kt. Jova is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm by early Sat evening near 23.1N 127.0W with maximum sustained winds 60 kt gusts 75 kt and weaken further to a tropical depression near 25.4N 130.7W by early on Mon. Large long-period swells generated by Jova are likely to increase the sea state well outside from where it tracks. Otherwise, high pressure will build to its north increasing the gradient over the western and north-central sections of the area, with northeast to east trade at mainly fresh speeds. $$ Aguirre