000 AXPZ20 KNHC 070900 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Sep 7 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Category Five Hurricane Jova is centered near 16.4N 114.4W, or about 460 nm SSW of the southern tip of Baja California, at 07/0900 UTC, moving west- northwest at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 929 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 140 kt with gusts to 170 kt. Peak seas are near 38 ft, extending out as far as 390 nm from the center in the NE quadrant. A solid core intense convection is noted within 150 nm from the center. In addition, numerous moderate to scattered strong convective bands extend far out from the center and encompass a broad area from 08N to 19N between 108W and 123W. Major Hurricane Jova is forecast to strengthen during the next 12 to 24 hours, and then is likely to begin weakening in about 36 hours. It should continue WNW for the next several days, while moving W of Clarion Island and farther away from mainland Mexico. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Jova NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 92W north of 03N to Guatemala, It is moving westward at 5 to around 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 06N between 91W and 98W. A weak tropical wave previously along 104W has dissipated overnight and associated convection has diminished. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from Costa Rica near 10N85W to 11N96W to 13N108W. It resumes SW of Hurricane Jova at 11N119W to 10N130W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 05N to 09N between 123W and 131W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 09W E of 86W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section above for information on Category Five Hurricane Jova that is located about 460 nm south- southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds continue to the southeast of the influence of Jova and in the Gulf of California. Strong winds in association with Hurricane Jova are ongoing W of 109W and S of 20N. Moderate to to locally fresh north winds are N of 20N to the W of Baja California. Seas in the area of strong winds are 12 to 18 kt, with 8 to 11 ft seas W of 104W and S of 22N. For the remaining waters, seas are 4 to 6 ft, except 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, aside from areas impacted by Major Hurricane Jova, expect fresh winds along the Baja California coast today as the pressure gradient tightens along the peninsula. Fresh northwest winds are also expected along and just offshore the coast between Manzanillo and Cabo Corrientes on Fri and Fri night. These winds will then expand in coverage and shift westward through the weekend as Jova pulls farther away from these waters. Pulses of fresh N gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region will commence tonight. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Seas of 4-6 ft dominate the basin primarily due to long-period southerly swell. Gentle to locally moderate south winds are south of the monsoon trough, with light and variable winds to the north. The only exception is in the Papagayo region, where moderate to locally fresh gap winds are pulsing. For the forecast, gentle to locally moderate south winds over the waters west of Ecuador will continue into early next week. Elsewhere, light to gentle variable winds will prevail, except locally moderate to fresh near the Gulf of Papagayo pulsing nightly into Sun. Long- period south to southwest swell will continue through the period. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section above for the latest information on Category Five Hurricane Jova. Jova is expected to impact the waters W of Clarion Island into Fri night, then continue moving W. Elsewhere, long-period southwest swell producing seas of 5 to 7 ft is present south of the Equator and east of 120W, along with moderate SE winds. The gradient between high pressure centered north of the area and lower pressure in the vicinity of the monsoon trough is producing moderate to locally fresh northeast to east winds from 10N to 20N and west of 120W. Seas with these winds are 5-7 ft. Elsewhere, mainly gentle winds are present along with seas of 4-6 ft in north to northeast swell, except primarily in southeast swell south of about 07N and west of about 118W. For the forecast, Major Hurricane Jova will move to 16.4N 115.1W Thu morning, 17.6N 117.8W Thu evening, then reach 18.7N 120.5W Fri morning. Jova will be near 20.0N 123.0W Fri evening, 21.4N 125.5W Sat morning, and 22.8N 127.6W Sat evening. Large long- period swells generated by Jova are likely to increase the sea state well outside from where it tracks. Otherwise, high pressure will build to its north increasing the gradient over the western and north-central sections of the area, with northeast to east trade at mainly fresh speeds. $$ KONARIK